It’s tough to believe an NFBC range of picks between 5-to-15 represents a buying low opportunity on Nolan Arenado . He plays a premium position in fantasy, half of his games in Coors Field along with leading the majors in both home runs (176) and RBI (564) since 2014. Arenado led the National League in home runs last season (38), finished second in RBI (110) and recorded 57 multi-hit games.
Arenado also joined Albert Belle as the only two batters to record at least 35 doubles and 35 home runs in four straight seasons. In the midst of his power peak, Arenado will turn 28 in April and hit the free agent market at the end of the season.
Last year, he slashed .297/.374/.561 with 104 runs, 38 home runs, 110 RBI and two stolen bases in 156 games. His isolated power dipped to .264 but Arenado increased his hard-hit rate to 42.9 percent according to Fangraphs. However, some issues arose within his splits from last year.
First, he excelled versus left-handed pitching but the chasm between his results against pitchers grew.
- Arenado versus LHP: 174 at-bats, 17 doubles, 15 home runs, 37 RBI; .369/.451/.747, 49.7 percent hard hit rate
- Arenado versus RHP: 416 at-bats, 21 doubles, 23 home runs, 73 RBI; .267/.339/.483, 40 percent hard hit rate
Compared to his career rates, Arenado’s hit .324/.396/.612 against southpaws with a .288 isolated power versus a .280/.328/.514 line against right-handed pitchers with a .234 isolated power.
Also, Arenado surged at home but his struggles on the road showed up in his slash lines more than within his power results.
- Arenado in Coors: 288 at-bats, 23 doubles, 23 home runs, 62 RBI; .347/.424/.681, 42.2 percent hard hit rate, .333 isolated power
- Arenado on road: 302 at-bats, 15 doubles, 15 home runs, 48 RBI; .248/.325/.447, 43.7 percent hard hit rate, .199 isolated power
There’s likely to be some positive regression to the mean within this sample from last season. For his career, Arenado’s hit .320/.374/.609 in Coors with 108 home runs in 1,677 at-bats. On the road, he’s hit .263/.318/.469 with 78 home runs over 1,671 at-bats.
Although some volatility surfaced last year, Arenado’s last three-year statistics provide a stable skill set. In 478 games, he’s scored 323 runs with 117 home runs, 376 RBI, seven stolen bases and a .300/.370/.574 slash. He also owns a .273 isolated power, 17.8 home run per fly ball percentage and 39.1 percent hard hit rate in this time frame. Arenado averages a home run every 15.6 at-bats the last three years and owners will accept his struggles on the road at times as long as the power ensues.
It’s apparent xSTATS factors Coors Field heavily. Arenado’s expected average the last three years sits at .285 with 100.4 expected home runs, well below his actual results. Knowing how Coors will benefit fly ball BABIP and extra-base hits, if Arenado hits more fly balls in 2019, 40 home runs could be in the offing.
He will need to increase his launch angles and rebound in barrels. Using Arenado’s Statcast data, his launch angle decline played a part in less barrels. Here’s his Statcast data from the last three seasons:
Hope lies within his boost in fly ball and line drive exit velocity but a move towards his 2016 launch angle could be a boon for Arenado’s fantasy owners. Last year represents the first time over the last four years Arenado did not finish within the top-25 of total barrels in a season.
Given his skill set and talent, it’s no surprise the projections agree a repeat lies within the realm of outcomes for 2019:
Only three players hit 40 home runs or more in 2018. Nolan Arenado ’s one tweak away from a return to this level. Perhaps the allure of a long-term contract will fuel a career year, but there’s no reason to think the projections above will be within reach. In fact, if Arenado hit 40-to-45 home runs, no one would be shocked. Owning a player in the first round who could score and drive in more than 100 with power upside and not a drain on batting average makes Arenado a popular target.
And if he falls to pick 10 or later? Even more value. Investing in Rockies makes sense in fantasy, even with the home and road splits. Arenado could return top-5 value while many chase stolen bases on the first round.
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Statistical Credits:
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen