For the impatient free agency crowd, it took until February last year for power hitter J.D. Martinez to sign with the Red Sox. Although many feared he could not carry over his ridiculous power totals from 2017, Martinez hardly missed a beat racking up 43 home runs with 130 RBI over 150 games with a .330/.402/.629 slash line. Only Christian Yelich also scored at least 100 runs with at least 100 RBI and an average over three hundred.
Martinez garners headlines for his attention to detail watching video of his swing and at-bats in an effort to fine tune the process. It appears more players should be following his lead. He became only the fourth player in Boston history to hit at least .325 with 40-plus home runs and 125-plus RBI joining Ted Williams, Jimmie Foxx and Mo Vaughn. Martinez also led the majors in multiple hit games (59). Here’s a list of some of his other end of season rankings:
- J.D. Martinez led the majors in RBI (130) and total bases (358).
- He ranked second in batting average (.330), home runs (43) and slugging percentage (.629).
- Martinez finished third in on-base plus slugging percentage (1.031), tied for third in hits (188), tied for fifth in on-base percentage (.402) and runs (111).
Over his last 55 games, Martinez surged to a .346 average (71-for-205) with 39 runs, 14 doubles, 14 home runs and 48 RBI. He also hit safely in 25 of his last 32 games and in 46 of his last 56 contests.
Although the power rates regressed slightly, Martinez still launched 43 home runs while raising his average and on-base percentage. Part of his success can be attributed to hitting the ball hard to all fields. For an illustration, here’s his batted ball data last season by direction:
Martinez hit 17 home runs to his pull field and to the opposite field with only nine to center last year. But as evidenced in the chart above, he recorded hard hits no matter what field the ball went to. It seemed like Martinez went with the pitch and drove it with power last season. Here’s his spray chart from 2018 courtesy of Baseball Savant with his exit velocities as the overlay instead of hit result:
This chart represents a hitting coach’s dream scenario. Not only did Martinez drive the ball to the opposite field, but his isolated power to right field (.492) sat 82 points higher than when he pulled the ball. An absolutely scorching May, during which Martinez hit 13 home runs, helped inflate his home run total from last season.
But, as a power source, Martinez remains one of baseball’s most consistent sources. Over the last three years, he’s appeared in 392 games accruing 1,470 at-bats with 266 runs, 110 home runs, 303 RBI, 11 stolen bases and a .314/.385/.615 slash line. He leads all qualified hitters in isolated power (.301) and hard-hit percentage (45-percent) according to Fangraphs in this time frame.
Before assessing his projections, using xSTATS, Martinez owns an expected average of .301 the last three years. Of more interest, his expected home run total of 116.3 means more positive power migration could ensue in 2019. Martinez owned an eye popping expected on-base average of .437, last year, which jumps off the page.
Martinez also represents a Statcast hero in regards to his hit tool. He recorded 430 batted ball events last season with 225 of them resulting in an exit velocity of 95 MPH or higher, which equates to a 52.3 hard-hit percentage. His average velocity of fly balls and line drives of 96.7 MPH stands out as well. Martinez finished second in the majors with 69 barrels (nice) and he’s been in the top-five in three of the last four years.
So, when healthy, Martinez ranks as one of baseball’s best hitters in terms of average and power due to his ability to drive the ball all over the park. This also reflects within his projections:
While his overall average draft position drifts a bit due to the lack of stolen base upside at a time when the category can be a bit overvalued, J.D. Martinez still belongs in the first round of drafts. With stable power production, a high floor of statistics and hitting in the heart of baseball’s most patient lineup, Martinez will rack up fantasy statistics in Boston. Use THE BAT’s projection as his top 90th percentile, but it makes him a worthy target.
Hitter profiles do not fall out of trees, unless living in Houston who released him years ago. Projecting success can be tough to do, but for Martinez in 2019, with health, it seems assured.
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Statistical Credits:
MLB.com, Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, xSTATS.org, THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty, ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen, Steamerprojections.com, ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski