Not only did Blake Treinen build on his 2017 breakout with Oakland, he turned in a historic season. Treinen became the first pitcher in major league history to save at least 30 games, compile an ERA below one and strikeout at least 100 batters. He also recorded the lowest ERA (0.78) since its inception as an official statistic among pitchers with at least 80 innings of work. Versus all American League pitchers, here’s how Treinen ranked last year:

  • Yielded the lowest on-base percentage (.207) and on-base plus slugging percentage (.417)
  • Second in slugging percentage allowed (.199)
  • Third in saves (38)
  • Fourth in batting average allowed (.158)
  • Fifth in strikeouts (100)

His final line of nine wins, two losses, 38 saves, 100 strikeouts, 21 walks, a 0.78 ERA, 2.42 xFIP and 0.83 WHIP resulted in profits for owners who targeted him last year. Treinen also recorded a 51.9 ground ball rate and eye-popping 25.1 strikeouts minus walks percentage.

According to Statcast, Treinen allowed a 6.6 launch angle against last year and only surrendered four barrels among his 192 batted ball events for a minuscule 2.1 barrels per batted ball event percentage. Within his arsenal, Treinen dropped his change and added a cutter with great results. First, here’s a look at his arsenal courtesy of Statcast:

His ability to work at the top of the strike zone along with burying his slider and sinker resonated in his success last season. While the above chart displays how his pitches move in and out of the zone, here’s another look at some of his most intriguing zone profiles:

Not only did Treinen generate more swings and misses, but he also turned in a 13.1 inning hitless streak. In a word, filthy. Treinen produced a career best swinging strike percentage of 18, limited contact to 65.8 percent and induced swings and misses outside the strike zone 42.8 percent of the time.

His arsenal also ranked well using the data on Brooks Baseball. Given a whiff percentage of 18 per pitch can be near elite, three of Treinen’s four pitches reached this level. His four-seam (18.31 percent), slider (27.95 percent) and cutter (19.86 percent) all eclipsed this number. Plus, his sinker still ranked well with a 14.94 whiff percentage.

It’s apparent the projection systems will not overrate last year’s production. But, keep in mind, since joining Oakland, Treinen’s won 12 games and saved 51 with a 1.22 ERA, 2.22 FIP, 0.94 WHIP over 118.1 innings. He’s also struck out 142 batters against 33 walks during his time with the A’s. Here’s a sample of Treinen’s projections:

Late age breakouts can tough to trust. However, given the lack of traditional closer situations in baseball, it’s apparent there will be a tax to pay in order to roster Treinen. Representing the first closer taken in the FSTA draft, Treinen went at pick number 63 overall. This falls in line with his NFBC 15-team average draft position (63.45) since the start of January as the 22nd pitcher and second reliever taken.

Versus his projections, taking the over on wins due to Oakland’s propensity to play in close games, over on saves (33) and over on strikeouts. Using his xSTATS as a guide, Treinen’s 2.90 kwFIP sits above his xFIP of 2.42, but represents a nice range of regression to bake in while valuing his 2019 outcomes. Use his WHIP of 0.94 with Oakland as the blueprint for this statistic.

Blake Treinen recorded a historic season. But when investing in closers, paying full retail for a breakout can be costly. Adjust for some regression, understand as bullpens continue to be muddled with many teams and realize Treinen’s an elite commodity. Will he be worth missing out on a bat or starting pitcher at his present price point? Therein lies the tough decisions when crafting a winning roster.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, BrooksBaseball.net, xSTATS.org, THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty, ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen, Steamerprojections.com