Trying to change perception in fantasy can be difficult. However, one way a pitcher can improve, by adding a pitch or adjusting his arsenal. Anibal Sánchez did use a cutter in 2017 with mixed results. Last year, he not only used the pitch more, it allowed Sanchez to finish with the second lowest average exit velocity yielded according to Statcast data among all pitchers with at least 150 batted ball events. Among starters, he ranked tied for first with Brent Suter .

Depending on the site, Sanchez ramped up the cutter usage at least 12-percent last year compared to 2017. He also threw more change-ups and fewer fastballs en route to a rebound season. Sanchez went 7 - 6 over 136.2 innings with 135 strikeouts, 42 walks, a 2.83 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. While this could scream regression for 2019, it’s going to depend on if Sanchez continues the path he forged this season.

Before delving into his individual pitch statistics, here’s an illustration of his arsenal courtesy of Baseball Savant:

Not only could his variety confuse hitters, but the pitcher himself. This ties in with how his usage patterns evolved last season by throwing more cutters, split-finger and change-ups. As a result, Sanchez threw fewer sinkers, curves and sliders, with success. In an effort to focus on the positive change, here’s his results in chart form on the four most deployed pitches with batting average (BA), expected batting average (xBA) and exit velocity (EV) included:

Outside of his fastball, Sanchez surged with the cutter, split-finger and change. Even with migration to the mean, his four-seam average should improve with the split-finger showing the most room for growth in batting average in 2019, but focus on the strikeouts minus walks percentage (24.4 percent) rather than the gap in average versus expected average.

According to Brooks Baseball, Sanchez limited opponents to a paltry .066 isolated power against his change and .134 versus his cutter. Sanchez also generated a 61 percent ground ball rate with his change. Add this in with the 83.7 MPH average exit velocity last year and only 25.8 hard hit rate allowed.

There’s no guarantee Sanchez will be able to replicate last year’s results. However, his xFIP and kwFIP were an identical 3.81 last season. For the regression crowd, this still sets a reasonable bar of expectations for Sanchez in 2019. Across his projection sets on Fangraphs, he’s forecast for 8-to-9 wins, 141-to-144 innings, 136-to-138 strikeouts, a 4.16-to-4.38 ERA and 1.27-to-1.31 WHIP. Much less appealing than his statistics from 2018.

Slated to be the fourth starter on the Nationals should be a good start for Anibal Sánchez to generate profit compared to his present price point. In 15-team NFBC drafts from the start of the new year through the end of January, his average draft position of 284.07 ranks him as the 113th pitcher selected. It’s not like Sanchez comes with much risk.

So, if he can win double digit games and carries over the effectiveness of his cutter and keeps its usage at or above 20 percent, suddenly Sanchez gets more interesting. This compliments his change and split finger (as Statcast lists it) well. A renewed arsenal and continued success could transform Sanchez from a dirty venture into a draft day bargain.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, BrooksBaseball.net, Steamerprojections.com, ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen, THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty, NFBC ADP: https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp/baseball