With the catcher position replete with less production, Yan Gomes rebounded in 2018 with 16 home runs. His BABIP surged fueled by a huge jump in line drive percentage resulting in a .266/.313/.449 slash line. More important for fantasy owners, Gomes traded ground balls for the line drives abetting his career high in hard hit percentage (43.2 percent) last year.

It seemed like Gomes stock could bounce back prior to his trade to the Nationals. He will now split time with Kurt Suzuki in an improved lineup. There’s a precedent with Suzuki in a timeshare at catcher during his time in Atlanta. Suzuki and Tyler Flowers produced well in 2017 with Suzuki accruing 276 at-bats while Flowers finished with 317 at-bats. It remains to be seen how the Nationals will handle the Gomes and Suzuki, but, each can be relevant in two catcher formats.

Knowing Gomes owned the eighth best pop time last year according to Statcast along with scouting reports noting his defensive prowess, Gomes should be able to garner the majority side of the Nationals catching situation.

Over the last three years, Gomes appeared in 284 games with 117 runs, 39 home runs, 138 RBI and a .229/.284/.401 slash. His batted ball data of a 21.1-line drive percentage, 36.5 ground ball rate and 42.4 fly ball percentage accompanies a hard-hit rate of 34.5 percent. While these sit below last season’s results, it’s a solid baseline.

Since 2018 stands out versus the prior two seasons, Gomes could be peaking as he arrives in Washington. Here’s all of his line drives and fly balls from the last three years with Washington as the overlay:

While most of Gomes power occurred when he pulled the ball, there’s some hope in right and right center on his field outs in the chart above. Comparing his actual statistics from last season to his expected statistics, Gomes expected home runs of 19 sits above his 2018 total and a .263/.310/.474 expected slash.

Using his numbers from Statcast, Gomes made gains in his launch angle to a career high 18.5 degrees last year. This supports the growth in line drives compared to fly balls. However, using their expected numbers, Gomes expected average of .248 will surface in his projections for 2019 but his expected slugging of .452 aligns with his xSTATS and above his actual one from last season.

Knowing Gomes should be the primary catcher, even in a 55-to-45 percent timeshare, will be a nice second catcher in fantasy. He owns a high floor shown within his projections with room to finish ahead of them:

Yan Gomes will need to carry over the gains in hard hit rate from 2018, but be sure to plan on some regression in his line drive rate. If he can maintain a launch angle of 18 degrees or higher, more fly balls will ensue and chances for home runs. If Gomes and Suzuki hit seventh, the Nationals hitter in this spot last year scored 71 runs with 70 RBI in 600 at-bats last year. Gomes, if getting the 55 percent split, would get 330 at-bats in this premise. This could translate into 13-to-15 home runs with 40 runs and RBI. Not ideal, but not without room for growth.

Invest in Gomes with eyes wide open and hope he produces more than his projection set suggests. A very good second catcher in 12 or 15-team leagues with upside within his hard hit data.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, RosterResource.com, xSTATS.org, THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty, ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen, Steamerprojections.com