On the surface, 2018 looked like a step back for former National League MVP Andrew McCutchen . He finished with 83 runs, 20 home runs, 65 RBI and 14 stolen bases with a .255/.368/.424 slash line. However, looking past his batting average, and considering he spent most of his season in San Francisco, the reduction of his counting statistics needed to be adjusted for.

But, McCutchen also recorded a career high 43.4 hard hit percentage. After a sluggish start, he also bounced back in the second half with 11 home runs in only 217 at-bats with a 17.6 walk percentage versus a 20.5 strikeout rate. Weighing down his numbers, the accompanying .244 batting average.

Beneath the surface statistics, some subtle changes evolved. McCutchen turned in the lowest chase rate (swings and misses at pitches outside the strike zone) of his career with a 19.4 percent mark. His contact rate held steady with a lower swinging strike percentage as well. When looking at his batted ball profile, one needs to keep in mind McCutchen seemed to marry his fly ball and hard-hit rates last season. Courtesy of Fangraphs, his 20-game rolling chart from the last three years illustrates this:

This surge fueled his second half .198 isolated power during which he pulled the ball 43.6 percent of the time. This could play well in his new home with the Phillies. Playing half of his games at Citizens Bank Park will enhance his counting statistics, with some positive migration of his numbers, meaning a rebound season lies in the offing. Taking all of his line drives and fly balls from the last three seasons with Philadelphia as the overlay, check out the doubles along with field outs which could make it over the wall in his new home:

Predicting more home runs can be fluky, but ignoring his average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives of 94.1 MPH last year will be a mistake. Using the Statcast data, McCutchen also finished with 179 of his 431 batted ball events resulting in an exit velocity of 95 MPH-plus (41.5 percent). Adding this to McCutchen’s expected average of .275 the last three years courtesy of xSTATS only reinforces the opportunity for a bounce back.

While McCutchen will not return to his MVP level numbers, the projection systems agree with not giving up on him just yet:

  • Andrew McCutchen Steamer Projection: 138 games, 515 at-bats, 82 runs, 26 home runs, 77 RBI, 11 stolen bases; .263/.362/.474
  • Andrew McCutchen ZiPS Projection: 145 games, 533 at-bats, 82 runs, 25 home runs, 80 RBI, 11 stolen bases; .255/.360/.454

It appears Steamer weighs his last three-year slash line of .263/.356/.446 more heavily than ZiPS which aligns more with his 2018 season. If McCutchen continues to exhibit improved plate discipline while carrying over the hard-hit gains, he could beat the projected averages. In fact, he should settle in to the .265-to-.275 range. Both systems account for an increase in home runs and RBI.

McCutchen’s currently forecast to hit third behind César Hernández and Jean Segura . With two strong on-base options ahead of him and Rhys Hoskins to protect him, McCutchen should see a steady diet of fastballs. For reference, he hit .307 with a .502 slugging percentage and 12 home runs in 323 at-bats last year against them. While many fantasy players seem to lose interest in rebound veterans, McCutchen could pay dividends to owners willing to take a chance on him.

His current average draft position sees McCutchen as the 41st outfielder according to NFBC draft data as the 151st player taken in early drafts. Far too cheap for a proven commodity in a perfect home park to bounce back. McCutchen’s stock could rise as draft season approaches, but reaching a round or two over his average draft position for a third outfielder with upside makes him a worthy target. Especially at a time when potential 25 home run and double digit stolen base players seem to be sparse.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, xSTATS.org, Steamerprojections.com, ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski, https://playnfbc.shgn.com/ad