While bullpens continue to evolve, over the last three seasons only two relievers recorded at least 100 strikeouts, Dellin Betances and Brad Hand . After being traded from San Diego to Cleveland, Hand finds himself atop the bullpen hierarchy and within the second tier of closers according to average draft position.

Hand finished with two wins, five losses, 32 saves, 106 strikeouts, 28 walks, a 2.75 ERA and 1.11 WHIP last season. For the third straight year, he increased his swinging strike percentage. He also reduced contact allowed to 67.7 percent. His strikeouts minus walks percentage did drop due to more walks, but as he hones his arsenal, Hand could rebound in the year ahead.

Over the last three years, Hand’s saved 54 games with 47 holds, an eye popping 321 strikeouts, a 2.62 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Since Cleveland continues to try and shed payroll, Hand will benefit as the clear option for saves in 2019. At a time when clarity does not present itself with many organizations, this enhances Hand’s allure in fantasy.

Also, Handmade alterations to his arsenal in 2018 throwing fewer sinkers, more four-seam fastballs and ramping up the usage of his slider. On the surface, the results do not jump off the page, but here’s a look at his pitches and he deployed them the last two years as a comparison:

Perhaps Hand’s decrease in swinging strike percentage with the slider accompanied the extra usage, but it’s still a near elite pitch. If he can get the swinging miss rate back to 2017’s 19.3 percent, a big season could be in store for Hand. Especially if he continues to dial back his sinker. Hand’s yielded a batting average against with the pitch over .340 in each of the last two seasons.

Transitioning as a starter to a relief pitcher, Hand’s been forced to tinker with his repertoire. He’s moved on from both a change-up and his curve. His career pitch usage chart courtesy of Statcast reflects this:

It’s encouraging Hand will work up in the zone with his four-seam fastball and he’s able to bury his slider inducing much needed swinging strikes in high leverage. His plot map of pitches from last season illustrates this:

Armed with a slider which will go down and in to a right-handed batter while away from a lefty should enable Hand to record another 100-strikeout season if he remains healthy. He did struggle with his vertical release point for a month with Cleveland last year, but it rebounded prior to the play-offs.

Trying to predict his 2019 will be a key for those investing in him. First, here’s projections from two different sites as a starting point:

  • Brad Hand ’s Steamer Projection: 4 wins, 3 losses, 34 saves, 65 innings, 79:24 K:BB, 3.40 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
  • Brad Hand ’s ZiPS Projection: 5 wins, 2 losses, 73.1 innings, 99:25 K:BB, 2.95 ERA, 1.11 WHIP

Given Hand’s current NFBC average draft position as the eighth reliever off the board at pick number 91, his owners will be hoping for the Steamer saves total to go with ZiPS strikeouts and ratio statistics. Using xSTATS, Hand’s kwFIP of 2.81 last year provides a solid baseline for predictive ERA along with his 2.97 xFIP as a range of possible outcomes.

If the slider usage remains over 50 percent and Hand uses less sinkers, his WHIP should migrate towards his three-year average (1.05) as well. Mitigating hard contact will be a key along with working ahead of batters. Key on his walk rates early in the season. A repeat of last year’s 9.3 percent could affect his ratios.

However, with a team friendly contract anchoring one of baseball’s deepest rotations, Brad Hand should be able to repeat his career high of 32 saves and turn in his first back-to-back 30-plus save seasons of his career. All he needs to do, repeat 70 or more innings, keep wiping out hitters with his slider and strikeout 100 or more hitters and he could be a top-five closer. Heed his health in the spring and the control, but Hand represents a stable skill set at a position prone to volatility.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, BrooksBaseball.net, xSTATS.org, SteamerProjections.com, ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski