Two of the most underrated categories in fantasy – runs and batting average – remain calling cards for Lorenzo Cain . In 2018, Cain slashed .308/.363/.440 with 90 runs in 141 games. This marks the second straight year he accrued at least 535 at-bats and also produced the first 30 stolen base season of his career. He’s one of 11 players to steal at least 30. Of them, Cain’s only one of eight with at least 10 home runs, and one of only three to hit at least .300 within this group.

Batting atop the Brewers lineup enhanced Cain’s production and he turned in a career best 11.5 walk percentage. He also recorded his highest hard hit rate (38.3 percent) but could not cash in on more home runs due to his 54.6 ground ball percentage. Beneath his batted ball data, Cain cut his swinging strike percentage by two percent while upping his contact rate by the same number. Most important, Cain reduced his chase rate (swings at pitches outside the strike zone) by almost six percent.

Over the last three years, Cain’s slashed .301/370/.426 with 234 runs, 34 home runs, 144 RBI and 70 stolen bases in 1,520 at-bats. He not only represents one of the most stable skill sets in terms of average, he’s one of 13 to hit over .300 in this time frame, and owns a 37 percent on-base percentage. Runs and stolen bases correlate with the ability to get on base.

There’s even a chance Cain could increase his home run total in 2019 with simple migration to the mean. He’s not a power hitter, but his minuscule launch angle of 4.9 degrees on average last year resulted in his career high ground ball rate. Could a key to Cain hitting for more power lie in hitting more to the opposite field?

For starters, when Cain pulled the ball last season, he hit a ground ball 78 percent of the time as a byproduct. However, when Cain hit to the opposite field, he recorded a a 37.4 fly ball percentage. Here’s a look at all of his line drives and fly balls last year with Miller Park as the backdrop:

While Cain did leave no doubt on his pull side home runs, he incurred some bad luck going to the opposite field, but bear in mind, this data’s reflective of his whole year, not just balls hit at home. With this in mind, here’s a look at his batted ball data in terms of exit velocity. Same chart, different view:

Steamer projects Cain to appear in 146 games with 84 runs, 15 home runs, 65 RBI, 21 stolen bases and a .284/.356/.422 slash line. Due to his propensity to injury in the past, the games played seems reasonable. However, if Cain continues to bat leadoff for the Brewers, the runs feel too low. Plus, over 539 at-bats in 2018, Cain drove in only 38 runs, seeing 65 as a projection still factors in his time hitting third for the Royals.

But, the most egregious part of this projection, Cain’s slash line. Given his last three year number above, it’s too low. Using xSTATS as a reference point, Cain’s expected average over the last three seasons of .301 sits well above his Steamer average. His on-base percentage also sits too low given the strides in discipline displayed last year.

It’s interesting Cain’s home run number allows for growth. Perhaps Steamer’s counting on him to return to his launch angles from 2017:

Given all the data, Cain’s such a solid player versus his early NFBC average draft position. He’s the 19th outfielder taken in live drafts at pick number 66.44 on average with a range of 50th as his high pick and 95th overall as his lowest. At a time when stolen bases and batting averages continue to decline, Cain continues to be undervalued. In only 254 at-bats in Miller Park, Cain scored 50 runs.

Lorenzo Cain ’s capable of providing 90-plus runs, with double digit home runs, 40 RBI and 23-to-28 stolen bases if he reaches 535 at-bats for the third straight season. Not too shabby for a team’s second outfielder. With some luck and a return to his old launch angles, a home run total in the mid-teens also could ensue, making Cain a stable target at his present price point.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp, xSTATS.org, Steamerprojections.com