When David Robertson agreed to a two-year contract with the Phillies, Gabe Kapler added a stable veteran presence to his burgeoning stable of high leverage arms. Robertson won eight and saved five games for the Yankees last year with a 3.23 ERA, 2.97 ERA and 1.03 ERA. Trying to discern how Kapler will map out his usage patterns in the late innings, Philadelphia recorded 44 saves as a team last year with nine different pitchers garnering at least one. Only Seranthony Dominguez (16) and Héctor Neris (11) reached double digits. However, as a team, the Phillies generated 64 save opportunities which leaves room for improvement.
This fact alone suggests even though Kapler will not use a primary closer, having Robertson in the bullpen could stabilize a volatile unit. Over the last three years, Robertson’s saved 57 games between his time with the White Sox and the Yankees along with registering 29 holds. He’s also won 22 games with a 2.82 ERA, 3.01, a 1.07 WHIP, 22.6 strikeouts minus walks percentage and a 14.1 swinging strike percentage.
Last year, Robertson starting to adjust his pitch usage to maximize his best pitch. According to Baseball Prospectus pitch f/x, Robertson’s curve ranked second among all pitchers with at least 200 curves thrown with a 54.9 swing rate with the pitch. It also placed Robertson 26th among his peers with a 41.23 whiff per swing.
Transitioning to Brooks Baseball, Robertson reduced his cutter usage last year for more curves and threw more sliders. Although the numbers do not jump off the page, it’s an intriguing adjustment on the fly by Robertson:
Noting the shift above, here’s Robertson’s whiff per swing rates the last three seasons to illustrate the effectiveness of his pitches:
It’s too early to speculate on how many saves Robertson will accrue as a reliever with the Phillies, but given the high amount of save opportunities and his ability to work in high leverage situations, they should ensue. Prior to his signing, Steamer projected Robertson for a 4 - 3 record with an 81:25 K:BB in 65 innings, a 3.32 ERA, 3.27 FIP and 1.19 WHIP. Looking at his ratio statistics, Robertson’s last three year totals sit below them in each category.
If Robertson continues to throw more curves than cutters and his gains with the slider carry over, a strong 2019 could be in the offing. Factor in his strong reverse splits against left-handed hitters, Robertson’s appeared in at least 60 games in each of the last nine years and he’s averaged at least 10 strikeouts per nine innings in his first 11 seasons.
Plus, Robertson does not care about his role, as long as it’s going to help the team win. Here’s a quote from his presser in Philadelphia:
“This is a place where I’m going to get a lot of opportunities to pitch in the back end of the bullpen,” Robertson said. “If I’ve got to pitch in the sixth, seventh or eighth, or even the ninth, it doesn’t matter to me.”
For 2019, Robertson could save 15 games with a repeat of his 91 strikeouts in 70 innings with an ERA in the 2.80-to-3.20 range with a WHIP between 1.03-to-1.07. If he continues to use his curve and the slider gains hold, Robertson will be able to return value to his fantasy owners with strong ratio statistics and save upside despite his new environment.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com, Baseball-Reference.com, BaseballProspectus.com, BrooksBaseball.net