What a difference a year makes. Daniel Murphy missed the start of 2018 due to lingering effects of microfracture of his knee. This made a proponent of Murphy for fantasy avoid him in drafts due personal experience with the surgery. It stinks. And pain lingers making it difficult to trust the joint and it will never be 100 percent again. However, with the news of Murphy signing with Colorado, and a year past the surgery, consider myself back in his support group. After a slow start, Murphy did bounce back in the second half hitting .315/.346/.498 over 241 at-bats with 11 home runs.

This falls in line with his last three years .325/.374/.539 line with 222 runs, 60 home runs, 239 RBI, 10 stolen bases in 380 games. During this time frame, Murphy owns the second best batting average, he’s second in contact rate, 10th in swinging strike percentage and tied for 11th in weighted on-base average.

Since being a pioneer in the fly ball revolution, Murphy’s been one of fantasy’s most consistent commodities. During the last three seasons, he’s walked seven percent of his plate appearances versus a 11.4 strikeout percentage. In terms of his batted ball profile, Murphy’s hit line drives 24.9 percent of the time with a 40.1 fly ball rate and 35 ground ball percentage. It will be important to note Murphy will be heading to Coors Field with a 38.8 pull rate and 34.4 hard hit percentage. Here’s all of his line drives and fly balls the last three years with his new ballpark as the overlay:

Not only will Murphy arrive with a profile of hitting more fly balls than ground balls, but his pull tendencies and hard-hit rate should translate well to his new home for half of his games. Plus, Murphy’s strong baseline within his slash lines and plate discipline, his arrival in Coors could be a perfect storm. Long regarded as baseball’s BABIP haven, Murphy’s swing will play well in this park. He owned a 16.3 launch angle last season and his resulting exit velocities courtesy of Statcast can be seen in this chart:

With batting averages in decline, Murphy could provide solid insulation for his owners this season. For starters, this article on Fangraphs by Stephen Loftus (please hyperlink this article: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-brewers-outfield-combating-coors/). Also from the link, here’s the BABIP data comparison from the major league average to results from fly balls in Coors the last five years:

Although Murphy owns the second-best average in baseball the last three seasons, he has not benefited from an inflated BABIP. Murphy’s hit .325 with a .334 BABIP, but with the expansive field in Coors along with the numbers above make it easy to believe he could hit .330 or higher in 2019. When looking at his expected statistics (xSTATS) of a .319 expected average within this time frame and his expected home run total of 60.5 represents almost the exact amount he hit.

Steamer projects Murphy for 81 runs, 22 home runs, 86 RBI, three stolen bases and a .306/.360/.506 slash line. Taking into account Murphy could hit second for the Rockies, the team’s cumulative total for second batters recorded 677 at-bats, 105 runs and 69 RBI with a .273/.328/.428 line. Murphy’s projected slash and three-year averages both would be improvements. If he reaches 547 at-bats, Murphy could score triple digits in runs but his RBI may decrease due to his spot in the order. However, the gains in average and potential to hit 25 home runs outweigh losing some RBI.

Presently Murphy’s being taken 162nd overall in early NFBC drafts. This will not continue. Signing with Colorado will cause his price point to increase, but with the knowledge shared above, he will worth the reach. Especially if a team needs to build a layer of protection in batting average. Yes, one year can make all the difference. Murphy’s second half rebound along with his new team makes him a worthy target in fantasy for the season ahead. Buy with confidence.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, xSTATS.org, SteamerProjections.com, BABIP information in the Stephen Loftus article: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-brewers-outfield-combating-coors/