With the depth at first base evaporating, Paul Goldschmidt remains a gold standard at the position. Moving to St. Louis should not affect his fantasy status, in fact, it could end up being a boon to his counting statistics. Goldschmidt struggled out of the gate last season bringing about untimely articles predicting his pending decline. However, Goldschmidt’s last 100 games yielded 25 home runs with a .334/.423/.608 slash line.

Goldschmidt finished 2018 with 95 runs, 33 home runs, 83 RBI, seven stolen bases and a .290/.389/.533 line. Within these numbers he reduced his ground ball rate by almost eight percent, hit line drives 25 percent of the time and finishes with a career high 46.2 hard hit percentage. Although Goldschmidt will turn 32 next September, planning on a decline of production for 2019 will be premature.

Over the last three years, Goldschmidt’s accrued 1,730 at-bats with 318 runs, 93 home runs, 298 RBI, 57 stolen bases and a robust .295/.401/.528 slash line. Even with a default to his averages in this time span, it equates to 577 at-bats a year with 106 runs, 31 home runs, 99 RBI and 19 steals. Goldschmidt’s isolated power of .235 and 42.6 hard hit percentage should translate well to his new home with the Cardinals. Here’s his batted ball data from the last three seasons with his new park as the backdrop:

It’s intriguing Goldschmidt’s never hit for more power in a season. When looking at his expected statistics, his expected home run total of 103.3 sits 10 above his actual total in this time frame. Two factors could result in a career year in home runs. One, note his increasing rate of fly balls and hard contact last year:

There’s no guarantee he will carry over the recent uptick in fly balls, but if he does, migration of his home runs towards the expected rate could occur. Another factor, baseball’s trend of pitching up in the strike zone. Using Brooks Baseball, here’s a look at Goldschmidt’s isolated power for his career, note his numbers in the upper third of the strike zone:

Keeping this in mind, note his home runs per balls in play the last three years in this same zone framing:

With no knowledge of how the baseballs will be wound this year, it stands to reason Goldschmidt will outperform his Steamer projection of 545 at-bats with 91 runs, 27 home runs, 89 RBI, 11 stolen bases and .277/.387/.499 slash line. Last season, the Cardinals cumulative total of hitters batting third resulted in 639 at-bats, 80 runs, 22 home runs, 94 RBI, two stolen bases and a .243/.317.399 line. Goldschmidt presents himself as a major upgrade to this gaggle of production and should be able to score near his three year averages rather than the Steamer projection.

Toss in some luck on fly balls and Goldschmidt could hit 33-to-37 home runs with triple digits in runs and home runs. As he ages, it stands to reason Goldschmidt will run less on the bases, so the 11 steals feels right. In what felt like a down season, Goldschmidt still averaged a 95.9 MPH exit velocity on his line drives and fly balls in play.

Last, early average draft position results indicate Goldschmidt could be rostered at a bargain this year. So far in NFBC drafts, he has a maximum pick of 15 and a low pick of 29th overall. If Goldschmidt falls to the middle of the second round in 15-team leagues, he represents a bargain. Let others chase the recent upside in drafts and focus on Goldschmidt’s solid baseline from the last three years with a chance for more in 2019.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, xSTATS.org, SteamerProjections.com, BrooksBaseball.net