Before getting bogged down by how much will Michael Brantley ’s signing with Houston affect playing time for the roster, do not overlook how his presence will enhance this lineup. Brantley returned to form last season with 89 runs, 17 home runs, 76 RBI, 12 stolen bases and a .309/.364/.468 slash line in 570 at-bats. Not only did he remain healthy, but Brantley turned in a career best 37.1 hard hit rate, repeated his double digit home run per fly ball rate from 2017 and maintained his pristine plate discipline.

Among all qualified hitters in 2018, Brantley finished tied for 11th in walks to strikeout ratio (0.80), first in Z-Contact (contact in the strike zone), first in contact percentage (90.9) and lowest in swinging strike percentage (four percent). For his career, Brantley’s recorded a 91.2 contact percentage, a 3.6 swinging strike percentage and 96.1 Z-Contact rate.

While it’s a smaller sample size, Brantley’s command of the strike zone can be seen in this zone profile displaying his whiff per swing percentages over the last three seasons:

Using the last three years as a marker for projections, Brantley’s slashed a robust .302/.358/.452 over 947 at-bats with 141 runs, 26 home runs, 135 RBI and 24 stolen bases. While his ceiling may not be as tantalizing as younger players, Brantley’s ability to hit for average with a solid mix of home runs with steals cannot be overlooked. Here’s his line drives and fly balls from the last three seasons with Minute Maid Park as the backdrop:

It will be interesting to track how Brantley adjusts to his new home park. Last year, he hit .364 in 117 at-bats with balls in play to the opposite field. However, it also marked his lowest isolated power. If a couple of his field outs make it over the fence, Brantley’s average and home run total could increase. Especially if he takes the ball to left field with power. Note his isolated power on pitches in the upper third of the strike zone on the third base side of the plate:

 

Not only does Brantley possess strong discipline, his batted ball data from last year also aligned closely with his career rates with two noticeable improvements for those hoping for a return to the 20 home run plateau which Brantley’s only reached once in his career:

In order for Brantley to reach 20 home runs, he will need to carry over his hard hard hit rate from last season and benefit from a lucky home run or two, which can occur. His projections seem a bit low but they also account for his recent injuries. ZiPS represents the lower baseline forecasting Brantley for 491 at-bats, 69 runs, 13 home runs, 69 RBI, 11 stolen bases and a .297/.355/.444 slash line. Low on counting statistics, but spot on for his averages.

Steamer comes in with a more conservative slash line of .288/.351/.430 but a more optimistic 575 at-bats with 83 runs, 18 home runs, 74 RBI and 11 steals. His final statistics for 2019 should be a mix of these. However, his counting statistics will also rely upon where Brantley hits in the Astros lineup and how much he plays. If he accrues at least 575 at-bats, taking the Steamer counting statistics with the potential for the over with the ZiPS slash line when formulating his eventual outcome.

Sometimes the unsexy veterans get a bump in free agency. It’s likely Brantley’s present average draft position as the 30th outfielder taken at 122nd overall will become more expensive in the NFBC going forward. Use his range of 83rd as his high pick and 142 as his low to gauge where he could go. Suffice it to say, anywhere after pick 100 in a draft will place Brantley as a bargain based on his capability to hit for average and produce across all counting categories in fantasy. With health, Brantley could be a steal at this price point, especially if he adds first base eligibility in season.

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

BrooksBaseball.net

SteamerProjections.com

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski