With the season nearing its end, identifying breakouts ahead of 2022 buzzword season proves a pivotal role in staying in front of the competition. There's a player with catcher eligibility capable of a 20-plus home run and 10-plus stolen base season, possibly in the midst of his major league breakout. Since the onset of the second half, Daulton Varsho owns a .294/.357/.588 slash line with 27 runs, 10 home runs, 26 RBI and four stolen bases over 48 games spanning 169 plate appearances.
This accompanies a .294 isolated power, a .391 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and discipline metrics in line with his first half results, but a steep increase in results in terms of power production. During the first half of the season, he recorded a paltry .143/.250/.214 slash with only one home run and a stolen base in 35 contests. Combining this with his strong second half, many fantasy players will focus on his 2021 numbers without realizing the changes made since the All-Star break.
First, he's converted an increase in fly ball rate with more power. Here's Varsho's spray chart from his first 35 games this season…
Since the break, Varsho's generated 116 batted ball events with 12 barrels (10.3 percent) and 49 hard hits (42.2 percent). While the hard hit rate does not jump off the page, he's launched 10 home runs in this time frame, like this one from September 18th:
https://twitter.com/MLBHRVideos/status/1439418453530746886?s=20
Staying on the pitch and driving it may serve him well going forward, as evidenced in his second half heatmap…
In what may represent a consolidation of his skill set, Varsho's driving the ball up the middle, not selling out for power. Using his Statcast discipline metrics, he's swinging at more pitches in the strike zone this year by almost seven percent, upped his swing percentage by 5.6 percent but reduced his whiff rate by 4.7 percentage points. He remains in the 86th percentile in speed despite logging 36 games at catcher this season. So there's no doubt he possesses eligibility at a position which can be a dearth of production.
When preparations for 2022 commence, many will see Varsho's current totals of 83 games with 265 plate appearances, 33 runs, 11 home runs, 33 RBI and five steals with a .241/.318/.456 slash as a disappointment. Savvy players like yourself will recall this column detailing his skills in the development phase before he enters his power peak and already on the cusp of being a top-five player at his position in the year ahead. Target for the floor of 20 home runs with 10 stolen bases next season and there's room for a higher ceiling if he hits .270 or better with 100-plus games for the Diamondbacks. He will be worth the reach.
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
Baseball-Reference.com