2021 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Aaron Nola

A rough 2019 season depressed Aaron Nola in drafts last season. However, with a tweak in his arsenal, a rebound season ensued at a discount. Do not be fooled by his 5-5 record, Philadelphia rostered a historically bad bullpen. Instead, focus on the other surface statistics like his 12 starts, 71.1 innings pitches (almost six innings per outing), a 96:23 K:BB, a 3.28 ERA, 3.25 SIERA and 1.08 WHIP.

He turned in career highs in both strikeout percentage (33.2) and swinging strike rate (13.4 percent). Nola reduced contact allowed with his lowest mark in the majors of 71.3 percent along with a robust 38.1 O-Swing (outside the strike zone) percentage. One wart, the Z-Contact (in the strike zone) remaining at 84.1 percent.

According to Statcast, he allowed 168 batted ball events giving up nine barrels (5.4 percent) and an 88.3 MPH average exit velocity. His expected numbers support the improved numbers highlighted above with a .222 expected batting average (xBA), .283 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) and 3.37 expected ERA (xERA).

When viewing his swings and misses chart, a change in his pitch patterns emerged. Check out his usage patterns by pitch in the chart highlighting all of his whiffs produced in 2020:

For the first time in his career, Nola threw his change-up more than any other pitch in his arsenal. Early returns suggest it may be so crazy it works:

Beneath these numbers, Nola increased zone swing percentage against but cut zone contact by four percent on Statcast. He grew his swing percent by 2.8 percentage points and his whiff rate by 4.7 percent. His batted ball events remained fairly stable, but he yielded more line drives last year with a drop in fly ball percentage. The drop in barrel percentage and a strikeout percentage in the 90th percentile reinforces the pitch mix change.

First, here's his swing and take profile with pitchers rating better with a negative run score:

When inducing swinging strikes, he uses his pitches well mixing how they move into and out of the strike zone. First, his change-up since it led the way in usage:

His curve dives down causing hitters to swing over the top as Trea Turner can attest:

With hitters protecting the bottom of and below the strike zone, he then mixes in elevated 4-seams:

In order to discern how each performed in terms of swinging strike percentage, one needs to access the numbers on Brooks Baseball. Here's how each pitch fared versus his results from 2019 compared to last year:

Not only could Nola continue to shine using his pattern from last year, but a few more curves could produce more strikeouts in 2021. But he's not done tweaking his arsenal evidenced by this spring training outing against the Yankees:

A cutter? Known as an effective pitch against left-handed hitters, this could be worth noting. Before delving into his projections, here's his numbers in an expanded sample:

• Nola 2H 2019-through-2020: 9-10, 27 starts, 163 IP, 201:59 K:BB, 3.70 ERA and SIERA, 1.16 WHIP, 30.1 K%, 8.8 BB%

During this sample, Nola's one of eight qualified pitchers with at least 200 strikeouts. With a new pitch in the works, could he repeat or improve his numbers from last season?

It remains to be seen but here's his projection sets from five sites:

There's another level left in his arsenal and he may win 15 games with 230 or more strikeouts if he reaches 185-plus innings. Target with confidence in the second round and hope the cutter opens the door for a step up to the next level in production with a WHIP closer to 1.10 if it takes.

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

BrooksBaseball.net

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

Steamerprojections.com

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski