2021 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Aaron Judge

In 2020, the season was set back due to the global pandemic, and it almost bought enough time for Aaron Judge to not miss any action. However, his shoulder injury was actually a stress fracture in his rib, dating back to mid-September. It wasn’t until early July that he started taking reps in live batting practice. With all that in mind, Judge was limited to just 28 games last year, slashing .257/.336/.554 with nine home runs and 22 RBI. His home run pace was actually on par with his 2017 season, so power-wise, he jumped right back in where he left off. Now, it was a short burst of power, followed by cold spells, but nine home runs in 28 games coming off injury and a delayed season is nothing to scoff at.

As I mentioned above, the power numbers were a bit inconsistent. He homered in five straight games in late-July/Early-August, but only had three home runs in the final 20 games of the season. When you look solely at 2020, his hard-hit rate doesn’t look too bad, considering a good chunk of the year was above league average, but when you look at years prior, the slow start and injury affected him greatly.

In 2018 and 2019, Judge was way above the league average and aside from the end of 2018, his worst stretches still had him above the league average in terms of hard hit rate. However, 2020 was a different story. He spent more time below the league average in hard hit rate in 2020 than he did in 2018 and 2019 combined! Thanks to a good home park, his power numbers didn’t suffer too much (6.2 AB/HR at home vs. 17.5 AB/HR on the road) but losing a lot of time to get in shape, get reps and hone in his timing affected him, at least in the power department.

The altered start to the year, and lack of results, affected some of his peripherals, too. He did cut into his strikeouts, which is good, but his walk rate plummeted. None of his metrics indicate why there would be such a sharp decline in his walk rate. The only noticeable thing is that he didn’t get a couple free passes like he usually gets. 2020 was the first year since 2016 that he wasn’t intentionally walked at least three times. Overall, he hit just .257 with a 28.1 percent strikeout rate. Did opposing pitchers feel more comfortable attacking Judge? Perhaps. Take a look at Judge’s 2020 season, and then his 2020 season without that five-game stretch in late-July/early-August.

Outside of that five-game stretch, Judge was atrocious, for a lack of better words. If you remove those five games, he was essentially Nicky Lopez for the 2020 season (one home run, 13 RBI, .201 batting average). Wow.

Some of the numbers in the table below are a bit inflated, but there are still some notable takeaways. The fact remains that Judge was very, very pull heavy in 2020. It’s not necessarily a bad thing, considering that he was better than years past in his HR/FB ratio, hard hit rate and slugging percentage when pulling the ball. For starters, his home run chart from this past year looks vastly different compared to 2017.

Now, while he fared better pulling the ball, the script was flipped for using the opposite side of the field. The Bronx Bomber used the right side of the field less than ever before, and his hard hit rate and slugging percentage on balls hit that way were so far below his career average, it’s almost hard to fathom. I promise there are no typos!

Could Judge be a league-winner in 2021? Very much so. He’s currently the 16th outfielder off the board and is routinely going off the board at the end of the fourth round in 15-team setups. Since late in 2020, his average draft position has been creeping later and later, likely due to the fact that there are concerns that he cannot stay healthy. He has all of the power upside in the world, and some return to normalcy, health and life-wise, could benefit him very well. Judge has a high floor in the power department and he’s more affordable than recent seasons, but the fact remains that he’s played more than 115 games just once in his entire career and has spent ample time on the shelf.

The fact that he doesn’t cost a first or second round pick is more enticing, and even if he were to hit the injured list again in 2021, hitting .270 with roughly 25 home runs from your fourth-round pick is better than if he cost you a first or second rounder. If you’re risk averse, you’ll likely be avoiding Judge, but if he stays healthy, he could be a league winner. However, the “if” there is massive.

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com
Baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball