2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Shohei Ohtani

It’s time for the return! There’s so much hype in Los Angeles that perhaps one of the most fun players in the area may not get be getting enough attention. Mookie Betts is now in LA, and the Angels added Anthony Rendon in free agency. Jo Adell will make his highly anticipated debut in 2020, but don’t forget about Shohei Ohtani ’s return to the mound! We haven’t seen him on the mound since 2018 after going under the knife for Tommy John surgery, but his rehab is nearly complete and he is throwing bullpens. Ohtani is a solid hitter and has value as a hitter alone, given his ability to make hard contact and contribute across the board. However, if he’s ever going to peak and emerge in the top tier of guys at his position, I think it’s on the mound.

In 51.2 innings back in 2018, Ohtani was electric. He posted a 3.31 ERA with a whopping 29.9 percent strikeout rate. Furthermore, his 15.2 percent swinging strike rate in 2018 rivals the marks posted by Jacob deGrom (15.4%) and Lucas Giolito (15.0%) in 2019. Interestingly enough, Ohtani isn’t too far off from deGrom in numerous statistics. It’s closer than you might think.

For the sake of 2020 and only 2020, Ohtani is no deGrom, and no one argues that, but the future upside is there for Ohtani to make a play as one of the top arms in baseball.

He displayed a plus slider that generated a 16.7 percent swinging strike rate and got opponents out of the zone over one-third of the time. His 60.2 percent contact rate on the pitch is solid as well, but it does have the propensity to be lofted a bit, perhaps because it caught a bit more of the plate than he might have liked it.

His fastball comes in hot and heavy, as seen by his 94th percentile fastball velocity, but it’s not his best weapon in his arsenal. That title belongs to his splitter. When he dials up this bad boy, good luck. You see it, then you don’t. It’s at your knees, you blink, and the catcher is blocking it in the dirt. In terms of vertical movement, it’s well above league average, and it netted just a 44.2 percent contact rate in 2018. That’s not even the best thing about it! It generated a whopping 40.7 percent O-Swing rate! That’s insane, however, that may not even be the best thing about it! His elite splitter posted a gargantuan 27.8 percent swinging strike rate.

Twenty-seven-point-eight percent. Wow. For what it’s worth, here are some other high strikeout pitchers with the swinging strike rate of their pitch from 2019.

Courtesy of FanGraphs

His splitter is elite, and one of the best “make you miss” pitches in all of baseball. How much we get to see of it in 2020 is the big question though. He was slated to return in mid-May, and due to the Coronavirus, he may not miss anytime which is crazy to think. In a shortened season, I would still imagine that the Angels are very careful with their prized pitcher, as they have visions of him headlining the rotation for years to come.

He probably won’t be deployed on a regular starter’s schedule, and the Los Angeles Angels could opt in for a six-man rotation, or simply just pick a day of the week and make that Ohtani’s day. He’ll likely get one start per week, health willing, and on a per-inning basis, he should be one of the more elite arms in the game.

He’s currently the 36^th pitcher (overall) off the board, but there are some concerns about his innings and regularity this season. The shortened season helps in some aspects, but it doesn’t wipe away that he likely won’t provide fantasy owners in points leagues with many two start weeks. On a per-inning basis, he should be one of the better, higher upside arms in the game, but if your rotation already has a ton of risk, perhaps grabbing someone a bit steadier like Zack Wheeler or Lance Lynn would be better for your team. Ohtani is fair value, given the concerns heading into 2020, but as long as he emerges okay health wise, expect him to be a top arm next year.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball