Fantasy owners were burned a bit in 2019 after the bar was set incredibly high by Philadelphia right-hander Aaron Nola . In 2018, he twirled a 17-6 record with a 2.37 ERA and a 27 percent strikeout rate. Visions of a fantasy ace danced in the minds of many fantasy owners, but instead, they were graced with a 12-7 record with a 3.87 ERA and a subpar 9.4 percent walk rate in 2019. There were some things from his 2019 season that are less than ideal and breed some concern moving forward, however, when you look at his season at a more granular level, he was performing like an ace more often than not.

Take a look at his monthly breakdown in just a few notable categories, courtesy of FanGraphs.

 

ERA

AVG

K-BB%

Mar/Apr

5.68

.298

13.5%

May

2.73

.246

19.0%

June

4.31

.208

19.6%

July

2.52

.196

16.0%

August

2.52

.188

21.6%

Sept/Oct

6.51

.279

15.2%

Courtesy of FanGraphs

His numbers for the year were skewed by some blowups at the beginning and end of the season. Honestly, the bookends of the season were what did him in last year. From May 1st to August 31st, he posted a 2.96 ERA with a 27.7 percent strikeout rate (10.2 K/9) and a 1.13 WHIP. He was still getting hit hard, but he was producing for fantasy owners, and that nearly four month stretch constitutes the majority of the season.

It’s encouraging that he had a few good months in there, but make no mistake, there are some concerning marks in regard to his batted ball profile. Home runs were up last season, and his 1.20 HR/9 mark was the second-highest mark of his career and highest since his rookie season. From 2016-2018, he posted marks of 0.81, 0.96 and 0.72. However, in 2019, he allowed career-highs in barrel rate (6.8%), average exit velocity (88.5 mph) and his 8.7 degree launch angle was just one-tenth of a degree from tying his career high. Yikes. Furthermore, his exit velocity on just fly balls and line drives in 2019 (93.9 mph) was two and a half miles per hour higher than his marks from 2016-2018. That’s not good.

To further hammer the point home, take a look at the following rolling graph and notice the increased hard hit rate and how not only did it peak higher than before, but remained higher as well.

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/W7QyioYJV4ONbRKeZwHIQm2W52bLwp6F1KcJWkWMi0V0h8ZlL32ScUOtGOS74chNCZ7-u-8AIQlVWUNZXTmcO8jT_eCGbiOK_K7zpgUf1qE25uPPwIgqeyXH9yWf-8ZEmvDstNyi

Nola’s curveball is his best weapon, but teams got to it a bit in 2019. Sure, a .201 batting average against it is still paltry, but it the highest it’s ever been, as was the .328 slugging percentage and .127 OPS. Furthermore, it was lofted more than before (25.3% fly ball rate) and his HR/FB rate on this pitch was slightly elevated.

In regards to his fastball, the .244 ISO against that pitch is well above his career average, and the opposition’s HR/FB ratio at 19.0 percent is a bit above his career average, but well above the 10.9 percent mark it posted back in 2018. However, it’s encouraging that the velocity on his pitch is actually slightly increasing. There’s still life with this fastball, don’t’ worry about that.

How does Nola return to fantasy ace status for the whole season, and not just the middle months of the season? He was below the league average in terms of being in the strike zone in 2019, after being above it every other season of his career.

Of course, we can get the writer’s delight here, when we see direct correlation between two statistics. In this case, we get it with Nola’s zone percentage decreasing and his walk rate shooting up.

For the return to fantasy stardom, it starts with harnessing the control. Nola showed he could be effective with a slightly elevated walk rate (6-7 percent), but it’s going to be tough to be effective when your walk rate is above nine percent.

In 2018, about 31 percent of the balls hit against Nola resulted in a batted ball above 95 miles per hour. In 2019, it was 39.5 percent. Getting back closer to his mark in 2018 will be key, but if I had to guess, it will likely be closer to 2019’s mark. Any reduction in this would help, and hopefully with some better luck, some more fly balls will stay in the yard.

Per NFBC data, Aaron Nola is the 16th starter off the board, and personally, I love the value. The marks from last year are likely going to scare others away and push up guys like Charlie Morton , Yu Darvish and Tyler Glasnow . Yes, some of the batted ball metrics are worrisome, but I’m a believer that the heart of the 2019 season is more indicative of what Nola is than the bookends.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball