2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Max Kepler

Minnesota outfielder Max Kepler erupted for a monster 2019 season. In 2018, he hit 20 home runs and drove in 58 runners across 156 games. All in all, it was a decent season, but it pales in comparison to what he did in 2019. In 134 games last year, he hit 36 home runs, scored 98 times, drove in 90 runners and posted a ridiculous .267 ISO, which was the 17^th-best mark in baseball last year. He was one of just 22 players to hit at least 36 home runs last season, but what is the outlook for 2020? Is the power legit, or is regression coming?

With the shortened Major League Baseball season, he’s not getting to 36 home runs again. It’s no fault of his own, but in terms of regression, we are going to look at it in terms of his batted ball profile and such. How can we explain this massive jump in home runs? He hit 16 more home runs than 2018 in 22 fewer games! Let’s figure out why.

His average exit velocity remained right in line from the past two seasons, but his launch angle did jump two degrees. Furthermore, and this is a good point, his barrel rate jumped to 8.9 percent. It was at 6.6 percent in 2018, and just four percent back in 2017. If we take a look at some other numbers, surely, we’ll figure something out here.

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

The average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives actually took a hit compared to 2018, but the barrel rate is up and simply put, he hit more balls above 95 miles per hour. That certainly helps in figuring out the gargantuan spike in home runs. Furthermore, when you take a look at what he did against both lefties and righties separately, you can see the overall spike. Here are some takeaways:

Against Lefties

• Career-high 45.2 percent fly ball rate.
• Strikeout rate against lefties was at least 21.6 percent from 2016-2018. It was just 14.7 percent in 2019.
• Career-best .293 batting average against lefties.
• Nine home runs total against lefties from 2016-2018. Nine home runs last year alone.

Against Righties

• Hard hit rate jumped from 36.2 percent to career-high 43.9 percent.
• While his fly ball rate remained similar, he cut his ground ball rate by nearly three percentage points, and added onto his line drive rate.

He made some strides, and there’s no denying that, but one of the big factors in this whole thing is a massive jump in his HR/FB ratio. His hard contact rate jumped overall, and his fly ball rate remained similar, but the jump in his HR/FB rate isn’t quite correlated to the other marks.

His rise to 18.0 percent in 2019 from his 9.9 percent mark in 2018 is meteoric, however, he does have two years (2016 and 2017) where he was above 12 percent. The home run total wasn’t as lofty then, considering his fly ball rate was nearly 10 percentage points lower, but still. It provides some sort of hope that he can be near that number in 2020. I’m less skeptical, however. Some slight regression is likely in play for Kepler here in 2020.

Also, if there’s anything else going for Kepler, it’s that he tends to always outproduce his slugging percentage. Sure, it’s not indicative to a prospective home run total, but a regular “overperformer” is better than a consistent “underwhelmer.”

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

I’m not trying to knock Kepler by any means for 2020, but more so putting things into perspective here. Is there even room to grow in 2020? Perhaps, but last year was really damn good. Even if his barrel rate improves, there’s a jump in average exit velocity and he hits more line drives and fly balls, what really is his power ceiling? Popular projection systems were giving him a total in the upper-20s and lower-30s this year in a full seasons work.

Kepler is entering his age 27 season, which is his theoretical prime, and it’s encouraging that his walk and strikeout rates have remained similar these past two seasons, and far better than those marks in 2016 and 2017. What you’re getting with Kepler in 2020 is above-average power with an average, at best, batting average. He’s going to hit somewhere from .250-.260 in 2020, and he’s essentially a poor man’s Franmil Reyes . Well, maybe with a little less pop. However, you can get him about one round later. At the same point in time, Justin Upon will be half a step below Kepler, and he’s in a similar situation in terms of being in the middle of a good lineup.

Right now, coming off the board as the 37^th outfielder presents some solid value, but be careful reaching for him, as the more you push him up, the more you are banking on a 2020 performance rivaling his breakout 2019 campaign.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball