Despite winning zero games, what a year it was for San Diego’s Kirby Yates . Don’t worry, I know wins don’t matter and is a flawed statistic. Okay, moving on. Yates converted 41-of-44 save chances and posted a glimmering 1.19 ERA. His 1.30 FIP and 2.25 xFIP indicate while luck may have been on his side a bit, he was still darn good in 2019. His .325 BABIP was the highest of his past three seasons, so it’s comforting that his ERA was that low despite the elevated BABIP. Another thing we’ll get to in more detail later is the fact that he induced more grounders than ever before, which certainly helped his HR/9 mark. His career mark is 1.26 HR/9, but was a miniscule 0.30 in 2019. Yes, being in a pitcher’s park helps, but a nasty repertoire is more crucial.

Yates allowed a meager 4.8-percent HR/FB rate, which is exceptional. It’s a testament to his stuff, and his ability to cut back on fly balls and the amount of hard contact allowed. Take a look at the chart below, and the combination of the decreased exit velocity on fly balls and line drives, as well as the launch angle being cut nearly in half!

 

Avg. Exit Velo

Avg. Exit Velo (FB/LD)

Launch Angle

2017

86.8

92.4

21.3

2018

87.0

92.4

13.0

2019

86.5

91.6

11.1

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

His four-seam fastball gets lofted a bit, posting a launch angle of at least 19 degrees in each of the past five seasons, and his slider was even worse. However, he hardly used the slider in 2019, and relied on his fastball and very effective splitter. His splitter generated the following launch angles since he introduced it to the opposition in 2017: one degree, 3 degrees and one degree. Since the start of the 2017 season, the splitter has resulted in just six extra-base hits (2 home runs). It’s been his strikeout pitch the past two years. The whiff rate on it was down in 2019, compared to 2018, but it remained his put away pitch, and batters just stink against it.

Furthermore, don’t be surprised if he continues to use that splitter more. It’s increased the past two seasons, and might eat into his fastball rate as well. The fastball has remained relatively sturdy in recent season, but the paradigm has shifted the past three years between his slider and splitter.

His strikeout rate jumped to 41-percent however, despite posting his lowest SwStr% rate in the past three seasons. Opponents chased less. However, he forced less contact on pitches in the zone. What’s interesting, too, is that both of his primary pitches (fastball and splitter) are above average in terms of whiffs/swing, and foul balls per swings. However, at the end of the day, he was one of three qualified relievers with a strikeout rate above 41-percent last season. The other two were Josh Hader and Nick Anderson .

Yates was in elite company in 2020, and its not like he was bad in years prior either. The home runs killed him in those years. In 2015, he had a 4.43 HR/9 in 20.1 innings with the Rays. Even in 2017 in his first season with the Padres, his home runs were still too high, but 2017 was the rebirth of his splitter and the beginning of the end for his slider. The Padres unlocked Yates’ full potential, which included a devastating splitter, and getting baseball out of the air and either onto the ground or into the catcher’s mitt. Since garnering opportunities with the Padres in 2018 (we’re removing 2017 from this), he’s converted 53-of-57 save opportunities. Elite. Excellent. Insert positive word here.

Yates is consistently the second reliever off the board, with only Milwaukee’s Josh Hader coming off the board before him. In 2020, Yates essentially was Hader, just with a lower strikeout rate, but with a far lower home run rate. San Diego’s offense should be decent this year, and the pitching should remain good, giving Yates plenty of opportunities to rack up saves this season.

Also, if Major League Baseball goes the route with half of the league in Arizona and half in Florida, his proposed division would have the Brewers, Rangers, Royals and Mariners. If that’s the case, it’s a big upgrade for Yates. Save opportunities will continue to come in bunches and he’ll continue to rack up the strikeouts.

If you make him the first reliever off the board, I can’t blame you, because Yates is really damn good and efficient. He’s one of the few closers worthy of his current cost.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com