Before the 2019 season, the New York Yankees brought in James Paxton to fortify a pitching rotation that needed a better slew of arms. There’s no denying that the big southpaw is incredibly talented, and has the ability to be an ace, however, injuries always seem to get in the way. Since entering the bigs in 2013, he’s never topped 160.1 innings (career-high in 2018) or made 30 starts in a season. He dealt with injuries again in 2019, his first year with the Bronx Bombers, but in 150.2 innings, he went 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA and a quality 29.4 percent strikeout rate.

In 2019, he posted a 1.37 HR/9, which was the highest of his career. Coming to New York, a much smaller stadium than what he had in Seattle, it was to be expected that there would be a slight jump, especially with Paxton transitioning to more of a fly ball pitcher. Interestingly enough, every year since entering the bigs, his ground ball rate has declined. With that, fly balls have increased, which can be worrisome, but his strikeout rate has increased as well.

Can the decreasing ground balls be explained? I believe there’s an avenue. By breaking down his pitch map over at Baseball Savant, we can extract the percentage of his pitches in each sector of the strike zone. They classify the top parts of the zone as zones 1-3. Zone 1 is up and in on a righty, zone 2 is upper middle, and zone 3 is up and in for a lefty. Additionally, with the focus on using his cutter more, there’s definitely been an added focus on pitching up in the zone to let that cutter and curve work.

 

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

Total

2017

4.5%

4.9%

4.4%

13.8%

2018

4.3%

7.0%

5.5%

16.8%

2019

6.0%

6.0%

3.3%

15.3%

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

Yes, it’s not huge jumps, but you can see that he wants to get his fastball up in the zone, and then come in on the hands of righties with his fastball and cutter. Also, take a look at his heat map from last year, and you’ll see a good chunk of his fastballs are up in the zone, and while the majority of the cutters are low and in to righties, he could potentially throw it a bit higher in the zone, but that might require an uptick in velocity on that pitch.

Throwing your fastball up in the zone is going to lead to more fly balls, but from the graph below, you can see that his changeup, and cutter do a good job of inducing ground balls. When you look at the heat map above, it makes sense, considering these pitches often times end closer to the bottom of the zone and have some sort of downward trajectory, so batters are getting on top of these pitches. His big loopy curveball, however, tends to induce more fly balls.

In 2017, he had a barrel rate that was in the top 4 percent of the league. In 2018, it was in the bottom six percent of the league. His 2019 mark was closer to his 2018 mark, which isn’t ideal, but Paxton has enough talent to overcome this. There are concerns that if the barrel rate were to spike again and get even closer to his 2018 mark, he could be in for a world of hurt given his home park and other hitter friendly stadiums within the American League East.

Before this season, he’s missed time due to the following ailments: lat strain, finger tendon strain, pectoral issue, knee injury, general soreness, and back issues. In early February, he had spinal surgery and was given a three to four month timetable. Due to the Coronavirus, it’s possible Paxton doesn’t miss a single start. He’s already missed time due to a back injury before, and he’s not getting any younger, but it is encouraging that the Yankees are able to ease him along and not rush him back to get on the mound. I believe that bodes well, however, it’s very risky to draft Paxton as your fantasy ace, or perhaps even as your SP2, given the season is already shortened and he’s coming off back surgery.

If Major League Baseball adopts the Florida/Arizona season as mentioned, I would consider dropping Paxton down a few notches, especially if he plays in Arizona. In 2019, his ERA was much higher on the road, and his slugging percentage allowed at home (.361) was considerably lower than the mark he allowed in road contests (.484). Overall for his career, his ERA in home starts is 3.05 and it’s 3.96 on the road.

If Paxton could stay healthy, he’s a back-end SP1, high-quality SP2, given his ability to rack up strikeouts and having the New York offense backing him. However, durability is the biggest knock on Paxton, and he’s just two and a half months removed from back surgery. In a shortened season, healthy bodies will be more important than ever. If he slips in your drafts, you can take a chance on him, but paying for him “at cost” seems like too risky of an investment. Stay up to date with any reports on Paxton, as even the smallest of setbacks could derail his 2020, more than everyone’s already is!

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com