2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Luis Castillo

The 2019 season was a nice one for Cincinnati Reds’ righty Luis Castillo . In 190.2 innings pitched, he went 15-8 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. His ground ball rate returned to what we saw in 2017, and he will need that with his home stadium being Great American Small Park. Derek Johnson has done some good things with some pitchers in recent years, and that certainly bodes well for Castillo. He’s an emerging, up and coming ace, but the big question is will it parlay into further fantasy success? If you’re asking me, the answer is……

Keep reading to find out.

Castillo uses four pitches in his repertoire and threw each one at least 16-percent in 2019. His fastball was his second-most used pitch, while his sinker and slider came in at 20.8 and 16.9-percent respectively. The pitch he used the most, which is also his best pitch, is his lethal changeup. He used it 32.5-percent of the time and it generated some pretty impressive results in 2019. In fact, it’s really just continued success for him since entering the majors.

Per Baseball Savant

Per Fangraphs pitch value, Castillo’s change up was best in the league. Coming in at a rating of 29.4, whereas the next closest was Mike Minor at 22.8. The only pitches with a rating above 29 last seasons were Justin Verlander ’s slider (34.3), Castillo’s change, Gerrit Cole ’s fastball (37.1) and Jack Flaherty ’s fastball (32.8). Furthermore, Castillo’s 2.87 wCH/C was second best amongst qualified starters, trailing only Hyun-Jin Ryu .

Castillo made some impressive leaps from 2018. His ground ball rate jumped nearly 10-percent from 2018, and was impressive in the fact that he cut his barrel rate from 8.8-percent down to 5.1-percent. An easy explanation to the increase in ground ball rate and decrease in HR/9 (1.49 in 2018 down to 1.04 in 2019) was the diminished launch angle. In 2018, that mark was at 9.1 degrees, but in 2019, it was just 5.1 degrees. Exceptional.

Furthermore, Castillo’s strikeout rate went up, largely because he got batters to chase more, and he generated more whiffs, led by his lethal changeup. However, it was subtle improvements across the board that led to these advances. More on that coming in just a few paragraphs.

Can Castillo get better, specifically in terms of strikeouts? Absolutely. Headlined by the game’s best changeup, he can continue to generate whiffs. However, the other pitches need to come along. Fortunately, there’s been some improvement each year. Is it substantial? No, not really, but a half step forward is better than one step back.

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

Castillo and Johnson (pitching coach) were putting some extra attention on his slider in spring training before it was cut short. I do believe it would have boded quite well for Castillo, because that would not only give him another plus pitch, but gives him a pitch to dive at the back foot of lefties, as well as run away from righties. One could argue that this is a pivotal steppingstone for Castillo to make that next step.

Cincinnati’s right-hander is currently being drafted as the 11^th starter off the board, coming in at pick 41. In 12-team formats, he’s going to cost you a fourth rounder, whereas he’ll get taken before the end of the third in 15-team formats. The 27-year-old has a right arm that can headline a fantasy rotation this year, and can be drafted as your first starter.

He can push a 30-percent strikeout rate this season and being backed by a potent offense certainly should help pad that win total. If you’re looking for starters after the top seven or eight, but still inside the top 15 or 16 options, Castillo is one of the three guys I’m hanging my hat on. I’m not worried about his 3.73 BB/9 or 10.1-percent walk rate last year, and neither should you.

Long story short. Yes, Castillo is a guy that you will want on your fantasy baseball squad in 2020. He’s a fantasy ace and will be a top 10 starter in 2020.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball