2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Robert Stephenson

Robert Stephenson isn’t the closer for the Cincinnati Reds and he’s a failed starting pitcher. His earned run averages of 6.08, 4.68 and 9.26 ERA from 2016 to 2018 respectively, primarily as a starter, indicate that. Last year, he didn’t notch a save or make a single start, posting a 3-2 record with an 11.27 K/9, 68.0 percent strand rate, and a 3.76 ERA. Aside from the strikeouts, which helped him be valuable last year, there doesn’t seem to be much to get excited about with Stephenson. However, a change to his repertoire unleashed one of the game’s deadliest pitches in 2019.

Per FanGraphs’ pitch value metric, counting only relievers who accrued enough innings to qualify, there were four pitches that posted a pitch value higher than 17. Three of them were fastballs (Seth Lugo , Aaron Bummer , Trevor May ), but the only non-fastball to surpass the aforementioned mark was Stephenson’s slider. He’s had a good slider, but one could argue he didn’t use it enough. Despite allowing a .286 average on the pitch in 2018, the xBA of .234 was far lower, and the 40.8 percent whiff rate was solid. However, throwing it more frequently and making that his bread-and-butter unleashed a wrath of fury on opposing hitters. Also, the spin rate on the pitch jumped over 200 rpms. Love that.

Courtesy of Brooks Baseball

Also, from the chart here, you can see the vast increase in horizontal movement on his slider, courtesy of Brooks Baseball.

Throwing the slider more has been incredibly effective for Stephenson and it honestly saved his career. It was a nice pitch back in 2017 for him, in terms of whiffs, but as a starter, you can’t get by with one pitch. As a reliever, he was more wiggle room to be a two-pitch guy, considering one of his offerings is elite.

His slider changed his outlook on the mound, too. He hovered around a 20 percent strikeout rate prior to last year’s 30.9 percent mark, he got batters to leave the zone (O-Swing%) more than ever before (36.3%) and posted an obscene 18.6 SwStr%. Amongst qualified relievers, that 18.6 SwStr% ranked third, trailing only Josh Hader and Nick Anderson .

It’s not all positives for Stephenson, however. His launch angle remains rather elevated, and given his home park, more ground balls would be nice. His 46.1 percent fly ball rate was higher than ever before, however, opponents posted just a 33.8 percent hard contact rate on fly balls, which is 10 percent lower than the year before and six to eight percent lower than 2016 and 2017. The table below further illustrates that there was less impactful contact on lofted balls against Stephenson.

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

Additionally, his barrel rate of 5.1 percent last year was far lower than the 8-10 percent days of recent seasons.

Now, what do we make of Stephenson and his elite slider for 2020? I’m not as concerned this year as I was last year with Stephenson and homers in Great American Small Park, so that’s encouraging. Could he push a 33 percent strikeout rate? Sure, but 29-30 percent seems like a nice baseline for 2020. Additionally, I do think he can push that ERA down a bit more, especially if his offspeed stuff continues to deliver, and he can improve upon a measly 12.4 percent whiff rate on his fastball.

Lastly, I wouldn’t say that he’s a non-factor in terms of saves either. Sure, Raisel Iglesias is still in town, but Stephenson should get a couple looks here and there, and if Iglesias were to go down or falter in anyway, I’m hard-pressed to believe that Stephenson wouldn’t be the man to hold down the fort. I’m bullish on Stephenson this season, and if he gets to 70-72 innings of work this year, he’s going to come damn close to striking out 100 guys this season. He’s one of the non-closers that I love rostering, given the upside in strikeouts and potential for a couple of saves pitching for a good team.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
brooksbaseball.net