2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Joey Votto

Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto has had one hell of a big league career. He should surpass 300 career home runs this season and notch his 1,000^th career RBI. For years, he was a high average, high OBP guy with nice pop, and hitting in a good stadium kept his runs scored and RBI numbers afloat. It’s been a rather rapid decline, however. In 2017, he hit 36 home runs, drove in 100 runs and hit .320 with a .454 on-base percentage. The past two years, he has just 27 home runs, 114 RBI and a .272 average with a .387 on-base percentage. He is a far better asset in OBP leagues, as his propensity to talk a walk hasn’t wavered, but the other statistics have. He’s no longer the fantasy asset he once was, but that doesn’t mean he’s worthless this season.

Let’s start with some of his Statcast numbers. His barrel rate was up from 2018, but still about 3 percentage points below where it was from 2015-2017. That’s certainly not great. His average exit velocity is actually right in line with previous seasons and nearly identical to his total mark since the start of 2015. His launch angle of 15 degrees in 2019 is highest mark in the past five seasons. His hard contact rate, per Baseball Savant, of 37.7 percent was his third highest mark in the past five seasons, and nearly five percentage points higher than his 2017 season that saw him wallop 36 home runs. Where’s the problem? It’s not all because of barrel rate, right?

No. It’s not.

The problem lies in the fact that Votto is making less hard contact on fly balls in particular. Line drives have remained steady or increased, but hard contact on fly balls have plummeted. From 2010-2018, he had one season with a hard contact rate on fly balls below 50 percent. In 2019, his mark was 41.8 percent. Additionally, his 10.5 percent soft contact on fly balls was his highest mark since 2011.

Take a look at the last few seasons in terms of his average exit velocity on just fly balls and line drives, per Baseball Savant.

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

There you have it. A steady decline in average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives is a thorn in Votto’s side. It’s not going to get any better either. Sure, it could rebound a bit, and playing in a hitter-friendly park certainly helps, but the increased soft contact on fly balls and line drives is going to drag down his HR/FB ratio. Quite frankly, he needs that to be rather inflated. Again, being in Great American Small Park helps, but a 10 percent soft contact rate on fly balls is unacceptable for a guy who is just two years removed from a 35+ home run season. Can’t have it.

Votto’s ability to get on base remains his greatest strength, and he’s a draft day bargain on runs scored. He’s going to score a bunch of runs hitting near the top of the order, especially if he hits in that second spot. Sure, runs batted in will take a hit, but with his high on-base percentage, Eugenio Suárez , Mike Moustakas , and Nicholas Castellanos should have no problem driving Votto in with regularity. If we were to play a full 162 game season this year, which we likely aren’t, Votto was one of my dark horses for 90+ runs for guys drafted outside of the top 260 or so.

He hit .261 last year, with an on-base percentage of .357 and managed to score 79 runs for a lineup that has added some substantial pieces since last the time they took the field.

Sure, his strikeout rate reached 20 percent for the first time in his career in 2019 and that’s a product of chasing a bit more than recent seasons, and his 7.3 percent SwStr% was his highest mark since 2016. He still displayed above-average plate discipline skills, as seen by his 82.4 percent contact rate and I’m encouraged that his O-contact of 69.3 percent was his lowest mark in the past five or so years. Limiting contact on pitches outside of the zone should help, and fingers crossed he chases less. His walk rate of 12.5 percent dipped substantially from years past, due to more swinging and chasing, so hopefully we get a rebound there closer to the marks of prior seasons. Before the spring was cancelled due to the Coronavirus, his nine walks were encouraging, while the nine strikeouts, well, not so much.

In leagues that value OBP, Votto is a bargain at his current price, and he’s one of my favorite later round picks to help boost those numbers and provide some solid numbers in the runs scored department. As the 27^th first baseman off the board, I love Votto as a bench bat this season, or perhaps one of your corner infielders in deeper formats. He’s in a small home park that will help offset some diminishing numbers, and the Cincinnati offense should be potent.

He no longer provides you worthwhile numbers in the power department, but he will thrive with above-average marks in terms of OBP and runs scored.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball