The Houston Astros have been the talk of the town in baseball circles, and while early on a lot of the heat was on Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman , it now appears that Carlos Correa has emerged as the face of it all. He’s been rather outspoken this offseason, and it’s safe to say that this team is by far the hardest to project in 2020. I expect regression across the board, but Correa is coming off a season that he was on pace for a career season. In just 75 games last year, he hit 21 home runs with 42 runs scored, 59 RBI and a .279/.358/.568 slash line. It’s the third-straight season that Correa failed to appear in 111 or more games, and that’s a major knock on him, and now when you introduce the elevated risk of bean balls, it’s not quelling anyone’s concerns to say the least. Overall, there were some positives from 2019 that have me thinking of buying back into Correa yet again in 2020.

As mentioned earlier, his 162-game pace from last year had him in line for a career year. His numbers last year extrapolated over 162 games come out to 45 home runs, 90 runs scored and 127 RBI, all of which are easily career-highs. This is great and all, but it does point out one issue with Correa that many fantasy owners grapple with come draft time. More on this later…

Correa’s Statcast metrics in 2019 further illustrate the fact that it would have been a big year for him. His average exit velocity was a bit down, but launch angle and barrel rate were through the roof! Also, his average exit velocity on just fly balls and line drives was up as well, and that is always good!

Year

Avg. Exit Velo FB/LD

Barrel %

Launch Angle

2015

94.3

8.9%

8.3

2016

95.0

7.7%

6.9

2017

94.9

9.3%

9.2

2018

93.7

7.0%

11.6

2019

95.7

13.5%

12.4

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

Last year would have been a career year for Correa, and there’s no doubting it. All the marks were there. Metrics were lining up with overall performance and he was using the field comparably to his 2015 and 2016 seasons. However, the constant thorn on the Correa rose reared its ugly head again.

Durability. The best ability is availability, and it’s been a problem for Correa. Over the past three seasons, he’s appeared in just over 60 percent of the team’s games. He’s missed time over the past three years for thumb, back and rib injuries, making it safe to say that he’s not exactly a beacon of health! The shortened season could help, and it actually gives Correa a slight boost, as he’s proven to be statistically dominant, in some categories, even in a short period of time.

The shortstop position is incredibly deep this season, and Correa is currently being drafted outside of the top 12 options at the position. His overall ADP has him just outside of the top 100 overall. Remember when I mentioned the tough decision fantasy owners struggle with when it comes to Correa? Well, here it is:

At a deep position, Correa is a plus asset in two categories, average in another one or two, and worthless in the last one. Shortstop is a position where you can net some speed, even with guys after Correa. He doesn’t give you any of that. He is a solid power (HR & RBI) producer, but durability tends to get in the way and negate him from piling up those numbers.

If you want more speed, grab Tim Anderson at the same price or Amed Rosario a couple rounds later.

If you want Correa but miss on him, and still want some power and RBI/R from the position, grab Corey Seager three to four rounds later, because the two are statistically similar and figure to be in 2020.

If you want similar power numbers at the expense of some points in the batting average department, Paul DeJong is coming off the board about 75-100 picks after Correa.

Using Steamer’s projections, Correa’s power upside at the position is validated, as he’s one of just seven guys projected to hit 30 or more home runs. However, there are 18 shortstops projected with at least 10 stolen bases, which Correa certainly won’t get to this season. There are 17 other shortstop eligible players (16 if you remove Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ) that have the same or higher HR+SB as Correa. If you need speed, maybe you pass on Correa and grab the likes of Scott Kingery , or Elvis Andrus .

I’ve been adamant about backing Correa in recent years, and I like some of the upticks he made in 2019, but shortstop is an incredibly deep position, and one where I like to gain some stolen bases. I can get solely homers, RBI and average from other positions, so when it comes time to take Correa, I often lean elsewhere, whether it’s for more steals, an arm, or the knowledge that I can replicate, or come close to matching, Correa’s numbers at a better price later on.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
baseball-reference.com
steamerprojections.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball