2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Gio Urshela

Gio Urshela blossomed for the New York Yankees in 2019. He was in 2019 to the Yankees what Miguel Andújar was in 2018. He performed quite well, but in 2019, Andujar lost most of the year to injury, which allowed Urshela to prove he was incredibly value to the Bronx Bombers. After hitting .314 with 21 home runs and 74 RBI in 132 games last year, Urshela heads into 2020 as the Yankees everyday third baseman, with Andujar occupying a super utility role. The 28-year-old did a lot that was out of the norm in 2019, so what do we think of Urshela in 2020? Is he going to be the same guy he was last year, or is statistical regression forthcoming? Let’s take a look…

First and foremost, Urshela made hard contact with great frequency. Compared to years prior, it was even more impressive the amount of hard contact he made, and the consistency he had with it. Take a look at his rolling chart, and something happened in 2019 where he shot up!

Furthermore, look at his average exit velocity below. Prior to 2019, he was actually a little bit below league average, but he was all above league average for the better parts of 2019.

All in all, pitchers didn’t pitch to him too differently in 2019 compared to other years. It was all right around one-to-two percentage points of one another, which is going to make this point below even more impressive. It’s not as if Urshela was insanely better against fastballs, but not secondary stuff. That’s not the case at all. He made remarkable jumps against all pitches last year.

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

I mean, look at those jumps! That is exceptional! As if this needs explained, but this allowed his average against each pitch to jump as well. In 2018, he hit .269 against fastballs, which was his best mark against any pitch. In 2019, he hit at least .286 against ALL three types of pitches. His launch angle decreased against the majority of them, but the increased exit velocities is exceptional.

There were also a couple of numbers that stood out about Urshela last season. Some are correlated, others are just worth mentioning.

Urshela swung more last year than previous seasons. This had some positives and negatives to it. He swung at more pitches in the zone, which is good, but he also chased more than before, so that’s a downer. Another interesting thing is that he swung at the first pitch 42.2 percent of the time last year. His previous career high was 33.7 percent. It didn’t hurt him, all things considered, because he hit .311 on the first pitch of the at-bat, and nine of his 19 (first pitch) hits went for extra-bases.

Another interesting this is that Urshela only hit a fly ball 33.4 percent of the time, which is actually on par with other seasons, minus his limited 2018 campaign. His line drive rate was slightly increased, and his ground ball rate was slightly diminished. There’s nothing necessarily wrong here, but it would be nice to hit a few more fly balls in his favorable home park. However, because of said stadium, he got to enjoy a 17.0 HR/FB rate at home. His mark on the road (17.8%) was actually slightly higher, but still. Line drives have the ability to leave Yankee Stadium, but a few more fly balls certainly couldn’t hurt. However, Urshela did have the ninth-highest average exit velocity on FB/LD, so that’s encouraging, especially if the batted ball profile remains similar to 2019.

It was a great 2019 season for Urshela, but there is some statistical regression coming in 2019. His xBA last year was .294, and his BABIP of .349 is an outlier for his big league career. With both of these marks likely coming down, Urshela’s ceiling seems to be closer to the .285-.290 range, with a more likely outcome residing in the .270s. His power numbers should be repeatable, and he could best last year’s RBI total (74) and runs scored (73) with regular playing time again in 2020.

Another thing to like about Urshela, especially if your league’s draft is right around the corner, is that his price is quite reduced for being an expected everyday player in one of the league’s best lineups and stadium. He’s currently the 28^th third baseman off the board, and other than Yandy Díaz , he’s just as good as multiple guys being drafted 20 to 30 plus picks ahead of him.

There’s plenty of room to capitalize on a solid return on investment on Urshela in 2020, even with some regression in batting average forthcoming. In this landscape, 20ish home runs from a corner infielder isn’t particularly eye-catching, but later in drafts, when you want a little power but don’t want to risk your batting average, Urshela is a guy that can do just that for you.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
espn.com