2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Justin Upton

Justin Upton was a solid fantasy asset for years. From 2011-2018, he hit at least 20 home runs and played in 145 or more games in all but one season. It all came unraveled last year, however, when a knee injury and a few other occurrences limited to him just 63 games. His average draft position (ADP) is significantly reduced compared to years prior, and is it because of the injuries? Sure. Is it because he’s on the wrong side of 30? Sure. Is it because some of his numbers across the board are down compared to years past? Sure. However, at his current draft price, you can do much worse than a guy like Upton, and popular projection systems have him posting numbers similar to his 2018 campaign, which was quite productive.

Let’s debunk one thing right from the beginning. Upton is not injury prone. Sure, he deals with bumps and bruises, but when you play in at least 145 games in every season from 2011-2018 and then miss time with injury in one season, that’s far from injury prone. His durability has been one of his greatest assets during his big league career, and it was certainly valued by fantasy owners. Reliable production within a durable frame is attractive to many fantasy owners, and while he likely gets a few more off days here in 2020, to account for the tendinitis in his knee, he still has the ability to play in 140 games this year.

It’s tough to look at some of his numbers from last year, since he got a late start to the year, tried to play catch up, and then missed time here and there. Some of the big takeaways were that he was striking out more than ever before, and his BABIP was a career low .261. He hit fewer line drives and while he hit more fly balls overall, his hard contact was down, and his soft contact was up. That’s typically not an equation that works out well for most hitters. All of this is encapsulated by his Statcast metrics.

His barrel rate of 11.6 percent last year was below his 14 percent mark in 2018, and his lowest since 2015. His average exit velocity was 1.5 miles per hour less than his previous low (88.7mph in 2017) and his launch angle was through the roof! It was up to 18.5 degrees. Why is that substantial? Well, not only did he make hard contact less overall, but his average exit velocity on just fly balls and line drives was considerably down from 2018, and even down from years prior. From 2016-2018, he finished within the top 60 in baseball in average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives.

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

Lastly, his 68.7 percent contact rate was the lowest in his career since 2008, and it’s the first time since that 2008 season that he hasn’t posted a contact rate higher than 70 percent.

I understand the concerns with Upton heading into 2020; however, for the most part, it should have been a typical offseason for the veteran. By this I mean that he wasn’t rehabbing, but more so preparing for the season that lies ahead. He’s slated to be a regular player for the team, and the Angels have re-tooled the lineup a bit. Shohei Ohtani will be out there on a regular basis and the team signed Anthony Rendon in the offseason. Additionally, it will probably only be a few weeks until top prospect Jo Adell is up roaming the outfield with Upton and superstar Mike Trout . By hitting somewhere between third and fifth in this lineup, Upton is going to have plenty of chances to drive in a bunch of runners. I like the sound of that.

Perhaps the most appealing thing about Upton this year is his price. Sure, some of his peripherals will diminish with age, but for the most part, he’s been very consistent as a professional, and if he plays the whole season, he’s a 25+ home run guy with a floor of 80 RBI in this lineup. Currently, he can be had outside of the top 200 players in drafts! Crazy!

Let me leave you with this. Per Steamer projections, there are a whopping 44 players projected to hit at least 30 home runs with 91 RBI and a batting average above .240. None of those players that meet the aforementioned criteria are going after Upton in drafts, and he’s the only one outside of the top 180 projected for those numbers.

There’s plenty of value to be had here, folks. That’s all I’ll say.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
steamerprojections.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball