2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Tyler Glasnow

The trade of Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows to Tampa Bay back in 2018 killed me. It felt like I was stabbed right in the gut. Glasnow’s and Meadows’ production in 2019 was the metaphorical twisting of that knife. I always viewed Glasnow as the future ace of the Pittsburgh rotation, with Jameson Taillon and Mitch Keller slotting in right behind him. Well, part of the equation was right. Glasnow is an ace, although it’s down in Tampa, and not in Pittsburgh. The Rays figured something out with the lanky right-hander and while the production was “fine” in the second half of 2018, there will little improvements that essentially paved the way for 60.2 Cy Young caliber innings from Glasnow in 2019.

Before an injury in May, Glasnow was the front runner for the Cy Young award. Through his first 48.1 innings of the year, he had a 1.86 ERA, a 30.1 percent strikeout rate with a miniscule 4.9 percent walk rate and an exceptional 1.69 GB/FB ratio. When he came back from injury he was good as well, but the Rays were uber-cautious with their young ace. His arsenal changed a bit and it looks as if there will be more changes in 2020. More on that coming later.

Opponents had a hard time barreling up Glasnow in 2019, and when you look at his Statcast metrics, you’ll see a lot of positives, outside of average exit velocity and fastball spin rate, courtesy of Baseball Savant.

Glasnow showcased last year that he has the makings of a fantasy ace, but his career high in innings is 111.2, which came back in 2018 when he was with the Pirates and the Rays. That season, he appeared in 45 games, and only made 11 starts. He’s never made more than 13 starts in a season yet. That should change this season, but we aren’t looking at a 200 inning guy this season. Glasnow should come in around the 150-170 range, with the latter of that spectrum being pretty aggressive. There is injury concern, considering he’s dealt with an injury what feels like every year, but there’s no denying that he can be great.

Look at the graphs below, showcasing Glasnow’s ascension to stardom, courtesy of Baseball Savant.

If you want the “too long didn’t read” version of the graphs above, here it is: He has the ability to strike out batters at an excellent clip, and since coming to Tampa Bay, he has a knack for missing the sweet spot of the opposition’s bat. Is he as good as he was at his peak last year? It’s probably not sustainable, but he’s nowhere near as bad, or prone to barrels as he was in 2017 or 2018. Opponents will certainly hit for a higher average than last year against Glasnow, here in 2020, but a wrinkle to his arsenal, as mentioned earlier on, will give hitters a new look in the beginning of 2020.

Glasnow relies on a good fastball, which he can manipulate to essentially cut or rise, and a hammer 12-6 curveball that wrecks hitters. Opposing hitters have a hard time lofting this pitch, considering that his exceptional spin rate of 2907 rpm on his curve induced an average launch angle of negative seven degrees last year, per Baseball Savant. Incredible. Now, onto the upcoming change for 2020.

It’s been reported this spring that Glasnow is going to go away from his changeup, and he’s working on adding a splitter to his arsenal. Is that because of injury? Perhaps. While the pitch was effective, if it was the reason for injury, considering he didn’t throw that pitch upon his return near the end of 2020, this could be good for Glasnow. Additionally, when you look at his pitch map for his changeup in particular, it was a bit erratic, to say the least.

A tertiary option in his arsenal that he can throw for strikes and induce weak contact will be otherworldly for Glasnow in 2020. If he can generate whiffs, weak contact and have this pitch become a weapon, he is a three-pitch ace with two pitches that would qualify as well above-average. Good luck to the rest of the league!

Glasnow is currently the 23^rd pitcher (22^nd starter) off the board, according to the NFBC, but when you look at some popular projection systems, they expect some regression from Glasnow in 2020, most notably in terms of his walk rate and ERA, which is to be expected of the latter.

Courtesy of Fangraphs, and projections by THE BAT, ATC and Steamer

Innings eaters like Yu Darvish and Zack Greinke have a similar ADP to Glasnow, so it will be up to you as to what direction you want your pitching staff to take. If you get a guy like Gerrit Cole or Jacob deGrom early, since you have a reliable 200+ inning arm, maybe you have the luxury to chase upside with Glasnow as your SP2. Glasnow displayed the ability to be an SP1 for fantasy purposes, and while overall innings may push him to a high-end SP2, he should be one of the more elite fantasy options on a per-inning basis, health willing.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
THE BAT Projections, courtesy of Derek Carty
Steamerprojections.com
ATC Projections courtesy of Ariel Cohen