2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Jorge Soler

Kansas City outfielder Jorge Soler was always viewed as a guy with great pop and could be a power producer for fantasy owners, but injuries always seemed to get in the way. Well, after dealing with injuries for the majority of the recent seasons, Soler avoided the training room in 2019, and played in ALL 162 games. Well, what do you know? He messed around and slashed .265/.354/.569 with 48 home runs, 117 RBI and 95 runs scored. He certainly benefits from having disruptors on the bases when he’s up to bat, notably Adalberto Mondesi and Whit Merrifield , but Soler’s powerful stroke at the dish has fantasy owners excited about what could be in 2020. Is the power real? Can he sustain it for another 45+ home run season in 2020? Could he push for 50? Wait, could he regress? All of that and more lies ahead.

Baseball is a game of repetition and rhythm, and Soler was able to find that for the first time in his career. At the big league level, injuries caused him to miss plenty of time on the field, so it was hard to establish any sort of rhythm at the dish. Before last year, he only appeared in more than 100 games once (2015), and his next highest total was 86 games in 2016. A full season of health allowed Soler to prolong the sort of streak that enticed fantasy owners in years prior, only to be blown up by an ill-timed injury. The substantial spike in home runs was due to a couple different factors, but one of the most prevalent reasons was simply being available on a daily basis. They always say the best ability is availability, and for the first time in his career, Soler was available, all year long.

Additionally, Soler cut into that ground ball rate, and traded some worm-killers in for hard line drives and towering fly balls. The ground ball rate last year of 39.3 percent may still be a bit high, but considering that it was in the mid-40s in 2018, and right around there in 2014 and 2015, it’s a substantial improvement. His 0.95 GB/FB ratio was the third-best mark of his season, and when you combine that with the fact that he repeatedly made hard contact, it’s no surprise that the home run total spiked. He made less soft contact than ever before, while making more hard contact than ever before. That’s a recipe for success.

Ground Balls + Soft Contact = Low Home Run Total
Line Drives and Fly Balls + Hard Contact = [Chance for] High Home Run Total

To hammer this home, this has been a trend worth noting, considering that his soft contact rate diminished for the second straight season, while his hard contact rate increased for the second straight season.

Courtesy of FanGraphs

Soler led all of baseball with 70 barreled baseballs last season, good for a 16.9 barrels per batted ball event rate, courtesy of Baseball Savant. The fact that he found the sweet spot of the bat more often is a big reason for many things, including the hard contact rate increasing, the soft contact rate decreasing and therefore, the home run total. I mean, let’s not sugarcoat this, people, he ranked in the 96^th percentile last season in average exit velocity and hard hit percentage.

Another positive trend moving forward for Soler is the fact that Soler made more contact last year than in seasons past, and that mark increased to 69.9 percent, which is the second-highest mark of his career. Additionally, by nature of making more contact, he swung and missed less, and yet again, last year’s 13.2 percent SwStr% mark was the second-best of his career. If this trend continues yet again, that’s a positive outlook for the 27-year-old.

At face value, Soler is a regression candidate in 2020. Absolutely. You don’t hit 48 home runs as a fluke. I’m not saying his mark will cut in half if he plays another full season. He never posted a HR/FB rate above 21 percent in his career, and last year, that mark was 28.1 percent (7^th-highest among qualified hitters). If we play around with the numbers, based on his HR/FB ratio, he would have ended the year with the following number of round-trippers.

You see? Soler rode thee seventh-highest HR/FB rate to a whopping 48 home runs. The home run totals above are assuming that he...

1. Likely plays in 162 games, or a total in the high-150s. Essentially, staying injury free
2. Maintaining the increased hard-hit rates and fly balls rates
3. Stays healthy

Yes, I mentioned health twice, because that is imperative here with Soler.

Lastly, where you draft Soler is a pretty price to play, and essentially, he needs to hit 40 home runs and drive in 100 runs. He’s currently going pick 79.76, making him a late seventh round pick in 12-team formats, but when you look at guys around him, you see what he needs to do.

Currently, he’s going four picks after Max Muncy who has back-to-back seasons of 35 home runs and 79+ RBI. Not to mention that Muncy likely has multi-positional eligibility in your league, further boosting his value, and Soler has just one year with the marks Muncy has posted in now two consecutive season.

He’s also going two picks after Joey Gallo , who prior to last year’s injury-ridden season, had back-to-back years of 40 or more home runs with at least 80 RBI. Soler gives you a better batting average than Gallo, sure, but the safer play for 40+ homers in 2020 is Gallo, not Soler.

Soler’s current average draft position puts him in a spot where he needs to likely hit at least .250 with 35+ home runs and 80+ RBI to return a positive value for those who draft him. It’s a steep price to pay for a guy who has just one injury-free season in his career and has been slapped with the regression tag. There’s a lot to like about Soler’s game, and his peripherals and batted ball profile do spark some optimism for his power outlook in 2020, but his current draft price isn’t enticing, or rewarding, for fantasy owners, unless everything goes right for the second straight season.

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Statistical Credits:

fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball