2019 NFL Draft Guide Player Profile: D.J. Moore

D.J. Moore had a productive rookie season, where he caught 55 balls on 82 targets for 788 yards and two touchdowns. Not only did he average 14.3 yards per reception last year, but he averaged a whopping 13.2 yards per carry, and he nearly received a rushing attempt per game. In his rookie season, he was able to average nearly three yards of separation, which is right on par with Odell Beckham Jr., Amari Cooper and Travis Kelce . As he continues to mature and develop in the National Football League, he will continue to get better and provide fashionista Cam Newton with ample windows to deliver the football. Not only will Moore get better in his second season, but there’s more opportunities to improve within this offense.

Christian McCaffery dominated the total targets last season, but Moore was the second-most targeted receiver on the team. With Devin Funchess no longer in town, that’s 79 targets from last year that have evacuated the beautiful state of North Carolina. Moore received 17 percent of the target share last season, and 17 percent of Funchess’ 79 available targets comes out to an extra 13.5 targets, which gets Moore up to a target total in the mid-90s. Do you like the sound of that? I know I do.

For Moore to take the next step for his fantasy owners, he’s going to need to produce in the most important 20-yard sector of the field, also known as the red zone. In 2018, Moore scored just two touchdowns, one was a 51-yard grab against the Falcons, and the other was an eight yard reception against the Lions. Sure, that second touchdown was in the red zone, but that grab was his only reception inside the 10 all freaking season. Additionally, he only had four receptions inside the red zone all season, yet he had three rushing attempts! Moore, a wide receiver, nearly had more rushing yards than receiving yards in the red zone last season. However, there is an encouraging trend heading into 2019, and it’s the fact that over the last six weeks of the season, he played over 90 percent of the red zone snaps in all but one game. As the season progressed, Moore simply did not come off the field for the Panthers.

As a recap, Moore will naturally develop in his second year on the team, his red zone presence grew as the year went on and there’s around 80 targets up for the grabs. Sign me up! But wait, there’s more…

Take a look at Cam Newton ’s passing attempts over the past couple of years:

Information courtesy of NFL Next Gen Stats

Hmm. Some interesting factoids up there. With a healthy right shoulder, Newton led the league in intended air yards, and last year, with a bum shoulder, he was down in the cellar with the likes of Derek “conservative” Carr and Blake of the Year (shoutout Pardon my Take) nominee Blake Bortles . Is Cam Newton 100 percent heading into 2019? Not sure, but the reports out of camp are saying that he’s feeling and looking good, even if there’s no official word that he’s 100 percent. While fellow young wideout Curtis Samuel has a lot to gain with an aggressive Newton, so does Moore. Through the first 10 games of the season, Moore was averaging 2.42 yards per route run, per Pro Football Focus. However, over the last six games, that mark fell all the way down to 1.30 yards per route run, per Pro Football Focus. There may be some discrepancies as to when the injury actually occurred, but seeing how this metric fell for all the Panther wideouts as the season went on, I think we have a fair idea as to when the injury really affected Newton’s production.

Yes, Samuel has a lot to gain with a healthy Newton, but that can really only benefit Moore as well. If Samuel is able to take the top off the defense, that allows more room for Moore to work the intermediate routes, as well as get vertical when duty calls.

In a half point scoring format, Moore comes in as our projected WR30, making him a back-end WR2 in 15-team leagues. We do project the bump in targets and receiving yards, but the touchdown number doesn’t quite get to the 6-8 range that’s very possible with a healthier Newton. Instead of scoring four touchdowns as we have him projected for, if he gets to eight touchdowns on the season, that’s an extra 24 fantasy points. Do you know where that places him? WR18, right behind Tyler Lockett and ahead of Christian Kirk .

Moore provides your fantasy team with a stable WR2, but he has upside to push into the top 15 at his position, especially with a healthy Newton and improved red zone presence.

Statistical Credits:
pro-football-reference.com
profootballfocus.com
nextgenstats.nfl.com