2019 NFL Draft Guide Player Profile: Zach Ertz

Will Philadelphia’s tight end Zach Ertz be one of the first three tight ends drafted in your fantasy league? Absolutely, and he deserves it. Over the past two seasons, no tight end has caught more passes than Ertz. Furthermore, he ranks in the top three at his position in targets, yards, and touchdowns. Here’s the thing, Nick Foles is out of town and may have pulled off some heroics in Philadelphia, but Ertz is Carson Wentz ’s guy. In a pinch, the ball is going to Ertz. Additionally, with an average core of wide receivers, Ertz gets to split out a bit and serve as the team’s top option in the passing attack. As the TE2 last season, there is only one spot for Ertz to move up, and believe it or not, there is a path to a TE1 season for Ertz.

Yes, Dallas Goedert is in town, but there is plenty, and I mean PLENTY to go around in this Philadelphia offense. Both tight ends were better under Wentz compared to Foles, and while Goedert’s numbers may look slightly more gaudy, Ertz’s numbers with Wentz actually place him closer to Kelce. Per Pro Football Focus, let’s take a look at some fantasy-related metrics for Ertz and Goedert last season, related to whom was under Center for the Eagles.

With Nick Foles :

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

With Carson Wentz :

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

In fact, if you take Ertz’s fantasy points per touch with Wentz over the course of last year’s full season with 116 receptions, it comes out to 295.8 fantasy points, and look at that, it puts him within ONE fantasy point – 0.8 to be exact – of Kansas City’s Kelce. Wow. Interesting when you take a look at the numbers, huh? We’ll revisit this in just a paragraph or two, don’t you worry.

While this might be a bit controversial, I’m going to stick with it here. Ertz is a big-bodied guy who can make the tough catches, but he’s a product of immense volume. When you watch an Eagles game, you can be enamored with his presence on the field, but his athleticism doesn’t blow you away and he’s a relative non-factor after the catch for the most part.

In terms of getting down the field, Ertz ranked 18^th out of 23 qualifying tight ends (50% snaps played) in yards per target, and 13^th out of 23 in average depth of target (aDOT). Additionally, he ranked dead last in average yards after the catch per reception last season. Yikes!  Ertz doesn’t win with sheer athleticism, and his fantasy numbers don’t add up from chunk plays. They add up because he’s the most targeted player at his position, and on a team with a mediocre running game and crew of receivers in recent seasons, Ertz has been the entrusted weapon to win the 1-on-1 matchups. Volume is key in fantasy football, so we shouldn’t penalize Ertz for this, but it is worth noting nonetheless.

The volume plays everywhere for Ertz, which is key, and another metric Ertz was better with Wentz was touchdown rate. With Foles under center, Ertz’s touchdown rate was 5.8 percent. With Wentz, it was 7.3 percent. So, with this information, let’s revisit the conversation from earlier. A touchdown rate of 7.3 percent over the course of last year’s 116-reception season, gives Ertz 8.5 touchdowns, so if we round it up to nine, we would have a new top tight end from last year. Ertz would have surpassed Kelce, and the 300-point barrier in a PPR format.

At the time of this writing, Ertz is the second tight end off the board, coming in 12 picks behind Kelce, and two picks ahead of George Kittle . While Ertz is still second in our projections for the season, he’s hardly ahead of Kittle, and in fact, we expect a smaller target total (98) for Ertz this season. Goedert’s emergence is real factor in drafting Ertz that high or not, considering other players at the top of this position don’t have the same sort of young talent behind them. While there certainly is a path to a TE1 finish for Ertz in 2019, there is a similar path for fantasy owners that his/her third-round selection ends up ceding some production to his backup.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com