2019 NFL Draft Guide Player Profile: Kyler Murray

What could be with Kyler Murray in 2019 is a potential fantasy superstar. However, he is a rookie, and as of about a year ago, he was ready to embark on a post-college journey that involved playing professional baseball. However, the Arizona Cardinals selected him with the first overall pick in this year’s draft, and he will begin the season as the team’s starting quarterback. Kliff Kingsbury will look to bring his “Air Raid” offense to the National Football League, and the quarterback in such a high volume passing attack will always command the attention of fantasy owners.

How much will Murray throw the ball in 2019? The non-numerical answer is a ton. In terms of a numerical projection, our projections at Fantasy Alarm having him throw the football 545 times this season, which comes out to an average of 34 attempts per game. Honestly, that might end up being a bit low, considering what Kingsbury’s quarterbacks did at the collegiate level. Yes, there’s a difference between the two levels, but Kingsbury’s going to implement what he knows best, and that is running a ton of plays per game, the majority of which are pass attempts. Look at the number of attempts at Texas Tech for Kingsbury and his quarterbacks in recent seasons.

In 2015 and 2016, Kingsbury did have Patrick Mahomes at the helm, but in 2017 and 2018, he rode Nic Shimonek , Alan Bowman and Jett Duffey to large statistical campaigns. Regardless of who is under center in a Kingsbury offense, there is production to be had, and Murray has enough raw talent and athleticism to produce early on his career while he transitions to the speed of the game’s highest level. In his final season at Oklahoma, a season in which he won the Heisman, he threw for 311.5 yards per game, ran for over 1,000 yards (7.2 YPC) and posted an exceptional 42:7 TD/INT ratio. Oh yeah, he also ran for 12 scores. Like every college schedule, there are some cupcakes in there, but if we take his numbers in the games against Texas, West Virginia and Alabama, he was just as significant statistically.

Murray is incredibly talented and enters the NFL as one of the most intriguing dual-threat quarterbacks, given his big arm, quick feet and ability to make defenders miss in space. Playing behind a below-average offensive line may not give Murray much time with a clean pocket, but his elusiveness and ability to make plays outside of the pocket will have the Arizona faithful salivating over its franchise quarterback.

The rookie quarterback has an incredibly strong arm and he has a nice blend of receivers at his disposal. His top option will be Larry Fitzgerald , who is a tried-and-true possession receiver that has a unique way of always getting open and coming down with the tough catches. Then, he has Christian Kirk , a fleet of foot receiver capable of getting downfield and making the splash plays for this offense. To confirm the notion of what sort of offense Kingsbury wants this to be, the Cardinals drafted blazing fast Andy Isabella and the six-foot-five-inch red zone threat Hakeem Butler in the second and fourth rounds respectively. The Cardinals are lacking at tight end, but they make up for it with running back David Johnson , who is one of the game’s better pass-catching backs.

Murray’s average draft position (ADP) will likely continue to rise if training camp videos continue to emerge on Twitter of him dropping absolute dimes to his receivers, but as long as there’s no negative reports coming out of camp, Murray will be one of the more polarizing fantasy quarterbacks in draft season this year. His current average draft position is QB14 at pick 101, but since July 1, he’s up to QB12, jumping Ben Roethlisberger and Cam Newton .

There’s no denying Murary’s rushing upside, but keep in mind that since 2000, only five quarterbacks ran for more than 500 yards in their rookie seasons. They were Robert Griffin (815), Cam Newton (706), Lamar Jackson (695) and Josh Allen (631). Furthermore, only three rookie quarterbacks since 2000 have averaged more than 20 fantasy points per game in their rookie seasons, and they were Deshaun Watson (24.13), Cam Newton (23.33) and Robert Griffin (21.17), per Pro Football Reference.

Again, Murray is incredibly enticing heading into 2019, but don’t let the hype train get you too infatuated with the rookie quarterback. Not only is he himself a rookie, but he has two rookie wideouts at his disposal, a first-year head coach in the National Football League, and a poor offensive line. Murray very well could be a top 10 fantasy option at the position, but with an increasing ADP, more has to go right than wrong for that to happen and for the rookie gunslinger to pay off on the draft capital required to roster Murray.

Statistical Credits:
pro-football-reference.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp