With just 55 career receptions and four touchdowns under his belt, Geronimo Allison may not seem like a valuable fantasy commodity in 2019. At time of writing, he is the 47th wide receiver off the board coming off an adductor injury that ruined what looked to be a promising 2018 season for the young receiver. Entering his fourth professional season at just 25 years of age, Allison nearly set career highs across the board, despite appearing in just five games (four starts). He was very productive to begin the season, and then the injury occurred, and that was all she wrote. Allison was en route to a productive fantasy campaign, and fantasy owners can have him at a rather significant discount in early drafts.
Allison’s six targets per game last year was third-best on the team. Most of his damage was done within the first four weeks of the season, and that is where the majority of the 2019 optimism for Allison resides. Through the first quarter of the 2018 season, Allison actually led the Packers in receiving yards. Yes, he had more than consensus WR1 or WR2 Davante Adams , as well as fellow WR1’s Keenan Allen and Antonio Brown ! Allison had the second-most targets, trailing only Adams, but in terms of passer rating, quarterback Aaron Rodgers was most successful when targeting Allison through the first four weeks.
PLAYER | RODGERS’ PASSER RATING |
130.0 | |
118.0 | |
104.4 | |
69.6 |
Courtesy of Pro Football Focus
During Allison’s first four games of the season, he had the 13th-highest yards per target among qualified receivers. Through the first four weeks of the season, Allison was the WR25 in a 0.5 PPR format. In this span, he averaged the same amount of fantasy points per snap as Houston’s DeAndre Hopkins , and he averaged more fantasy points per touch in that span than Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans , Indy’s T.Y. Hilton and Kansas City’s Tyreek Hill , per Pro Football Focus. Lastly, his 1.97 yards per route run was just outside the top-20 at the position through the first four weeks, and slotted in just behind Odell Beckham Jr. and Keenan Allen , per Pro Football Focus.
Has the injury suppressed his fantasy outlook that much? Sure, it’s far from a full season, but there is a valuable buying opportunity on Allison in 2019, especially considering that his average draft position (ADP) is after rookies N’Keal Harry and D.K. Metcalf.
The growth opportunity for the fourth-year receiver lies in the fact that he should be fully healthy and recovered from last year’s groin injury, and with Randall Cobb heading to Dallas, nine percent of the targets from last season are available. Listen, Adams is uber-talented, don’t get me wrong, but he cannot receive all of the targets. Allison should see a sizable jump in workload this season, settling into the WR2 role for this team, behind Adams.
With the added workload comes more responsibility, and Allison will need to improve upon his minor drop problem in the beginning of 2018. Of receivers with at least 25 targets through the first four weeks of the season, only Michael Crabtree and Demaryius Thomas had a higher drop rate than Allison (13.6%), per Pro Football Focus. It’s hard to earn Rodgers’ trust, and probably even harder to keep it, so he will need to be efficient and effective to open the season, in an effort to solidify himself in the Green Bay pecking order.
Matt LaFleur and primarily Nathaniel Hackett will have a say in the play calling for the Packers this season, and both of whom have never presented a top-tier passing offense. However, to their credit, LaFleur dealt with Marcus Mariota and Hackett spent time in Buffalo and then had Blake Bortles in Jacksonville. While Hackett will call plays, Rodgers will have plenty of say and will continue to be an elite quarterback option. Additionally, elite wide receiver Davante Adams came out and mentioned that Allison “could be dangerous” in the new offense, especially since he will work outside and in the slot with regularity.
At his current price, Allison is a great value selection. In 12-team formats, he’s practically being treated as low-end WR3, but he could produce as a mid-tier/back-end WR2, especially with Rodgers at the helm. Sure, offseason statements could create false hype around players, but we’ve seen glimpses of what Allison could be in the offense, specifically in the first four games of the 2018 season. Even if he doesn’t keep up that pace, he should finish the year in WR3 territory.
Adams will likely see some double teams throughout the course of the season, opening up opportunities for Allison receive some targets in this offense. Put your trust in Rodgers to keep Allison fantasy useful, and expect WR3 production, despite drafting him as a WR4.
Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com
lineups.com/nfl/nfl-targets
nfc.shgn.com/adp/football