What if I told you that the RB21 (0.5PPR) from last season would be an interesting draft day target in the third round as a potential bell cow back in 2019? Despite scoring only a few more fantasy points than Houston’s Lamar Miller in 2018, there is some intrigue around Indianapolis’ Marlon Mack . He was one of just 10 running backs in 2018 to rush for at least nine touchdowns, and he saw plenty of work throughout the season. He averaged 16 rushing attempts per game for the season, including three weeks with 20 or more carries. While he likely won’t be a huge factor in the passing game this season, he’ll get a handful of targets per work, and any little bit helps! With the Colts doing very little to bolster their running back room, Mack is poised to improve upon last year, in terms of volume, productivity, and fantasy points.

Mack received 55.6 percent of the team’s rushing attempts last season, and with the coaching staff committing to him this season, it would be no surprise to see him exceed 60 percent in 2019. There was a clear trend in Indianapolis last season, specifically between the correlation of wins and Mack rushing attempts in 2018. See for yourself, courtesy of Pro Football Reference.

Mack Rushing Attempts

Record

Less Than 10

0-1

15 or Less

5-2

20 or Less

7-2

20 or MORE

3-0

 
Andrew Luck is a phenomenal quarterback, and he is capable of putting the team on his back to win football games. However, he’s not prone to benefitting from a strong and capable run game. Mack provides that to him and this entire offense. Don’t get it misconstrued, however, because as much as Luck can benefit from a capable rushing attack, Mack greatly benefits from having a talented quarterback like Luck, as well as other elite weapons (T.Y. Hilton , Parris Campbell , Eric Ebron , etc.).

There were a few weeks last year when a touchdown saved him from an otherwise garbage fantasy day, but hey, that’s a perk of being in one of the better offenses in the National Football League. Compared to all running backs, Mack ranked in the top 12 in total rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line, 10-yard line and 5-yard line. He was effective on these rushes as well, and he will remain the team’s top goal-line option in 2019.

Despite being a bit inconsistent down the stretch, he scored the seventh-most fantasy points (0.5PPR) during the last four weeks of the 2018 regular season. His 78 carries were the fourth-most in that span and he appeared to be much more elusive. Per Pro Football Focus, he was shaking-and-baking the final four weeks of the season, but in the other weeks, he appeared to be stuck in sand, yet remained useful in fantasy formats.

 

Week 1-13

Weeks 14-17

Avoided Tackles

7

11

Elusive Rating

15.0 (109th)

39.1 (44th)

 
Despite running behind the third-highest graded run blocking offensive line in 2018, Mack was largely inefficient, per NFL Next Gen Stats. By their measurements, his efficiency rating of 3.5 was tied with Lamar Miller . However, take this how you will, considering that per this metric and measurement system, Christian McCaffery, Aaron Jones and Nick Chub all had lower efficiency ratings than Mack. His yards per carry was a solid mark, and being the lead back for a productive offense is valuable in and of itself. Throw in his expected work in the red zone, and even if the yardage totals aren’t there on a given week, he’s more than likely going to find the end zone at some point. Mack is an easy candidate for 10+ rushing touchdowns in 2019.

When you look and Indianapolis’ run/pass ratios from last season, some may be inclined to shy away from Mack, considering that Indy is a pass-heavy team. However, with how good their team is, they should be leading plenty of football games in 2019. Last season, when Indy was leading by at least three points, they were actually a run heavy team in the second-half, per Sharp Football Stats. Take a look at Indy’s splits overall, and then a few that really benefit Mack’s fantasy outlook for 2019.

SITUATION

RUN %

PASS %

2018 Season

38.8%

61.2%

Leading in Second Half

60.0%

40.0%

Tied/Leading in 4th Quarter

69.0% (5th-Highest)

31.0%

 

Mack’s longest run last season 49 yards and he is your prototypical volume back, meaning if he is going to get to 100 rushing yards in a game, the carry total will likely be closer to 20 than 10. In the four games he accrued 100+ rushing yards last season, here were his rushing attempts: 19, 25, 27 and 25. Mack’s division boasts two of the league’s best rushing defenses (Jacksonville, Houston) and an up-and-coming Tennessee defense under Mike Vrabel. His division is far from favorable for Mack, but he did the majority of his damage outside of the division during the regular season last year, sans one game against the Titans late in the season.

UPDATE (8/24): Andrew Luck's retirement has sent the fantasy community on a downward spiral, and much to the dismay of many, the Colts' offense takes a huge hit. Mack will fall a bit in many rankings out there, and he should still ample volume, but the carries in the red zone may be less frequent with Jacoby Brissett at the helm, compared to Luck. Mack is a fringe RB2 for me, and likely enters the flex conversation on a weekly basis. The stout run defenses in the division didn't scare me off too much with Luck under center, but with Brissett, it's incredibly worrisome.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com
sharpfootballstats.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/football