2019 NFL Draft Guide Player Profile: Nick Chubb

Before Nick Chubb completely took over the keys to the running back room in Cleveland, there were weeks of clamoring for him to do so. In Week 4, he scored two touchdowns on just three carries, rumbling for 105 yards in the process. In Week 7, he became THE guy, and certainly did not disappoint. From that week on, he notched three 100-yard performances, and received 18 or more carries in seven of 10 games. The Browns did sign Kareem Hunt this offseason, but he will be suspended for eight games, and it will take a bit to get caught up to speed. Are their concerns about Chubb’s workload down the road when Hunt is back and ready to go? Of course, and that’s why drafting Chubb is giving fantasy owners headaches.

Chubb is an RB1 the first eight weeks of the season, and that can be said with great confidence. Chubb is an RB1 when Kareem Hunt returns from suspension is said with much less confidence. Hunt is a very talented running back, and has the advantage over Chubb in the passing attack. Chubb averaged under two targets per game last year, whereas Hunt was a staple in the Kansas City passing attack. With Baker Mayfield under center, the Browns were one of the most pass-happy teams in the entire National Football League. Chubb was able to rack up as many rushing attempts as he did last season, despite the pass-happy nature under Mayfield, due to the act that only four teams (Colts, Broncos, Rams, Ravens) operated under a faster offensive pace than the Browns. In the second half of games, no teams ran a play faster than Cleveland.

All of the metrics showcase how good Chubb is. Look at his league ranks in various categories, per Pro Football Focus, amongst running backs who had at least 125 carries last season.

Chubb’s 5.19 yards per carry was the 13th best mark by a rookie running back since 1970. It’s even more of a testament to how good he was because he saw eight or more defenders in the box a whopping 34.4-percent of the time, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Only LeGarrette Blount , Royce Freeman and Leonard Fournette encountered a stacked box more frequently. The acquisition of Odell Beckham adds another threat to the passing game, and should help in decreasing the frequency of stacked boxes employed against Cleveland.

Chubb is currently the 12th running back being selected in drafts, typically in the middle-to-late second round of 12-team setups. After such a successful rookie season, the only reason he is where he currently resides is due to the team bringing in the suspended Hunt. Spending a second-round pick on a running back who could potentially be splitting touches in the second half of the season justifies why some fantasy owners are scared to use that premium draft capital on a potential timeshare piece. Yes, the first eight weeks will likely be glorious for fantasy production, but after that is a huge question mark.

However, by no means does this guarantee that Hunt is a changed man. What if he gets involved with something during his suspension? He could get himself into more trouble before things come up about, and likely any minor incident could shorten his already miniscule leash. Sure, he could come back after a sparkling offseason and be a fantasy factor come Week 9 or 10, but there is similar opportunity to him getting into another incident or any problematic scenario and either being further suspended, or perhaps the Browns just release him. Let me say it this way: Kareem Hunt is not guaranteed to come back after his eight game suspension. There’s a lot of things that can happen, for better or worse.

Essentially, assuming good health for Chubb – knock on wood – these are the likely outcomes for 2019:

• Best Case: Chubb is dominant to open the season, and remains a RB1 for fantasy, with or without the return of Hunt

• Most Likely: Chubb is a tried-and-true RB1 until Hunt returns, where he then drops to a low-end RB1/high-end RB2

• Worst Case Scenario: Chubb opens year as an RB1, or struggles and is an RB2, but settles into a full-blown timeshare upon Hunt’s return.

If Hunt’s name wasn’t involved in this scenario, Chubb could find himself being selected at the back-end of the first round. However, the sheer thought of a potential timeshare is worrisome for fantasy owners, especially in the second round of drafts with your potential first running back. Ultimately, the decision on Chubb comes down to where he slips in the draft, and your personal tendencies as a fantasy owner. Are you risk averse? If so, you might find yourself avoiding Chubb and grabbing another top-notch wide receiver, like JuJu Smith-Schuster , or an elite tight end, like Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz .

However, if you want a potentially elite running back in the second round, Chubb is worth the gamble. Health willing, you’ll have a fantasy stud for the first half of the season, and the simple fact of the matter is that he could play so well that despite having Kareem Hunt , the Browns simply cannot take Chubb off the field. If the team releases/trades Duke Johnson , Kareem Hunt could handle the pass-catching duties and take a few snaps, while Chubb can dominate as the team’s leading rusher, and catch his couple of passes per game. 

There’s no denying that Chubb is an RB1 talent wise, but there are legitimate questions about his workload in 2019, especially in the latter half of the season.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com
sharpfootballstats.com
nextgenstats.nfl.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/football