2019 NFL Draft Guide Player Profile: Josh Allen

In reality, Josh Allen didn’t set the world on fire. He threw more interceptions than touchdowns and completed just 52.8-percent of his passes on the season. The strong-armed quarterback was 5-6 as a starter last season for the Bills, but there is plenty of intrigue surrounding him heading into the 2019. He was one of just three quarterbacks to rush for over 500 yards last season, and only Allen and Lamar Jackson topped 600 rushing yards last season. Furthermore, Allen had eight rushing touchdowns last season, three more than Jackson and Deshaun Watson .

Without the hype and praise of Jackson, Allen was a more effective runner in 2018. Buffalo didn’t shy away from Allen as the team got closer to the end zone. In fact, his usage remained steady or even increased a bit, where someone like Jackson lost out on some of those carries.

Here is Allen’s productivity in the red zone, per Pro Football Reference.

Allen maintained a healthy share of the rushing attempts where it matters most, and in fact inside the 10-yard line and 5-yard line, Allen had the most carries on the Bills last season. LeSean McCoy will get his work, as will Devin Singletary and T.J. Yeldon , but Allen figures to still be a prominent factor in the rushing attack in 2019. His ability to effectively rush the football and pile up yards as a quarterback gives him a nice floor on a weekly basis.

In a star-studded league at the quarterback position, everyone was looking up to Allen over the last six weeks of the 2018 season. That’s right, over the last six weeks of the season, Allen was THE QB1. Not a QB1, but THE QB1. The rookie gunslinger averaged 25.38 fantasy points per week over the final six weeks of the season. In that span, he threw eight touchdowns to seven interceptions, but the five rushing touchdowns surely helped. In that nice little run – pun intended – he had to end the season, his aDOT was 12.6, highest in the league during that span.

To take the next step in both reality and fantasy, Allen will need to become a more efficient passer. It’s tough to have a long run of success at this level if you aren’t able to dissect the defense through the air. Defenses will likely spy Allen often, and force him to throw it, and that’s where he ran into trouble last season. Allen has some talented weapons at his disposal, but you don’t need the home run every time. With an added weapon or two this season, Allen has a chance to be more effective in the passing game on routes that aren’t sending receivers streaking 50+ yards down the field.

Per Next Gen Stats, Allen’s expected completion percentage of 59.6 was far better than his actual 52.8 percent completion rate. Yes, he still would have ranked towards the bottom of the league, but with Zay Jones and Robert Foster doing their things against corners, it could have led to a more fruitful stat line in 2018.

The Buffalo Bills added the speedy John Brown and slot technician Cole Beasley to a wide receiver core that already featured the aforementioned Jones and Foster. With the dearth of talent the receiver position has had in recent seasons, the Bills will likely spread the formation out, and attempt to make things as easy as possible for Allen when deciphering where the football needs to go. He has his home run threats in Brown and Foster, allowing for Jones and Beasley to create separation underneath, while McCoy and the other backs can leak out into the flats.

There is enough merit to make Allen your first quarterback at a solid value, and hope that the fantasy production over the last handful of the weeks carries over into 2019. If Allen maintains his rushing effectiveness, and can improve as a passer, there is upside for a top-10 fantasy season at the position. However, the passing numbers may be eyesores, but just look at the total fantasy points.

Scratch that. If you draft Josh Allen , you might be better off just watching the box score, rather than watching the game itself. While he has a cannon, you might become sick of seeing Allen overthrow an open receiver or just flat-out miss someone. Allen is a perfect candidate for best ball formats, but in re-draft scenarios, Allen is an upside play at a rather deep position.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/football