It wasn’t always glitz and glam with Derrick Henry in 2018, but fantasy owners will never forget his legendary performance in Week 14 against the Jacksonville Jaguars when he rumbled, bumbled and stumbled for 238 yards and four touchdowns. Furthermore, he had one of the most iconic runs of 2018 that featured ample Jaguars being shoved to the ground by Henry’s powerful stiff arm. Henry’s overall stat line doesn’t look terribly by any means, considering he ran for 1,059 yards (4.9 YPC) with 12 touchdowns. However, those numbers were saved by a herculean final few weeks of the season. How do we evaluate Henry heading into the 2019 season? He’s an interesting fantasy asset, because you can buy into what he was the first 12 games of the season, or what he was the final four games of the season.
Henry rewarded fantasy owners in 2018 that stuck with him, because about halfway through the season, Henry might have even been dropped in many formats. Here are some interesting tidbits through the first 12 games of Henry’s 2018 season.
He recorded 15 or more carries just two times and finished in the single digits five times.
He never surpassed 60 rushing yards.
He averaged under four yards per carry in all but five games.
He posted 10 or more fantasy points in a standard format just three times.
However, Tennessee committed to Henry over the last four weeks of the season, and coincidentally, they went 3-1. In those contests, Henry recorded at least 16 carries and 84 yards in every contest, and scored in all but one of those games. His 585 rushing yards accounted for 55.2 percent of his total rushing production in the entire season. Lastly, Henry averaged a ridiculous 6.7 yards per carry in the final four games of the 2018 season.
All the reports coming out of Titans camp, albeit these are comments made in early June, indicate that the team wants to commit to Henry right away in 2019. At the owners meetings back in March, the Titans General Manager came out and essentially said that if he is effective early on, they are going to put that [the workload] right back on him. Paraphrasing of course. Henry is a nice blend of power and rather deceptive speed. Sure, he may not run around defenses like other backs, but he’ll sure as hell run through just about anyone.
Per Pro Football Focus, of running backs with at least 150 attempts, only Nick Chubb had a higher elusive rating than Henry. Additionally, Henry’s 4.21 yards after contact per attempt was second-best in the NFL last season. Over the last four weeks of the season, no one was even with shouting distance of Henry’s 153.0 elusive rating and 5.74 yards after contact per attempt. For what it’s worth, during that magical four game run, Henry broke 24 tackles on 90 rushes/receptions. That’s freakin’ good.
Lastly, Henry has a league average strength of schedule this season, which is nothing to be afraid of, and he’s on a team that, again, is committed to running the football early and often in 2019. Per Pro Football Focus, the Titans’ offensive line posted the 9th-best run block grade in the National Football League. To further commit to the offensive line, the Titans lured Rodger Saffold away from the Rams, and bring his back-to-back seasons of a run blocking grade of at least 71 over to the Music City.
Which Henry are you buying into in 2019? The one that burned you through the first three quarters of 2018, only to see him tear it up after you lost patience – and rightfully so—and cut the dead weight? Or are you buying the version that led the National Football League in rushing yards and touchdowns over the last four weeks of the season?
Ultimately, Henry isn’t going to be everyone’s cup of tea, and that’s understandable. Different strokes for different folks. However, the case can be made for Henry to crack the top seven at his position in fantasy, assuming Tennessee is committed to establishing his rhythm early.
Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com