2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Jose Alvarado

José Alvarado came out of virtually nowhere in 2018 to become one of the popular reliever pickups in all of baseball. Despite logging just eight saves last year, and a 1-6 record to boot, Alvardo is gaining some traction through draft season as a value closer. Despite Sergio Romo getting his share of save opportunities, and starts, Alvarado went 8-for-12 on save opportunities but posted 32 holds, which trailed only Adam Ottavino and Archie Bradley in all of baseball last season. He’s done nothing this spring to lose the job he hasn’t officially been given, and even if the Rays don’t name a bona fide closer, Alvarado will be the guy to lead the team in saves this season.

Alvarado is a burly southpaw that throws some serious cheddar. His fastball velocity ranked in the 93^rd percentile last season and has some devastating sinking action. His sinker and curveball combo dominate his arsenal, but he does additionally have a curveball and traditional four-seamer he can throw at his discretion.

Alvarado doubled his appearances in 2018 from 2017, and while Alvarado was a decent reliever in his rookie year, some changes to his pitch usage led to staggering results. Take a look at his pitch usage, particularly the dissipation of his four-seamer and increased propensity to throw that nasty sinker.

As if the graph doesn’t do it enough justice, we can put the data in numerical fashion. After throwing his four-seamer nearly 40 percent of the time in 2017, he threw it just 1.5 percent of the time last year, in favor of bumping that sinker up to a nearly 70 percent usage rate. Additionally, when you compare his zone breakdown from the past two seasons, it does explain why/how he got drastically better in 2019.

Here’s his chart from 2017:

And here is 2018:

Boy oh boy, that four-seamer in 2017 was catching WAY too much of the plate. In 2017, the opposition hit .257 and .444 against his four-seamer and sinker respectively. In 2018, opponents hit .273 off his fastball and just .233 off his sinker. The new usage pattern suited Alvarado well for 2018, and it should be just fine yet again in 2019.

His arsenal is well-suited for a closer as well, with his strikeout and ground ball rate combining for a lofty 85 percent. Among qualified relief pitchers, Alvarado was one of just 13 arms to combine for an 85 percent or higher ground ball and strikeout percentage. Other 2019 closers, or potential closers, with that profile last season were Matt Barnes , Edwin Díaz , Aroldis Chapman and Corey Knebel .

The young southpaw allows harder contact than one might like, but the glorious thing about that is when you primarily throw a sinking fastball, it’s tough for opponents to hit that pitch. Therefore, the opposition can make hard contact on the ground all they want. In 2018, the average launch angle off his sinker was four degrees. That’s it.

At the end of last season, Alvarado showed that he has the ability to be an elite producer in the K/9 department, and his stuff is nasty enough to make it happen. In the month of August, he struck out 40.5 percent of the batters he faced. In September and October, he struck out 54.6 percent of the batters he faced, and that month, his FIP was 0.03. The southpaw was absolutely dominant and that late season run will be the reason he gets the majority of the team’s save chances in 2019.

The Rays certainly won’t be winning a World Series this season, but the best closers in fantasy baseball don’t always come from teams that make deep runs in the playoffs. Take a look at where the Rays rank in recent years in terms of save opportunities:

The Rays have provided its closer with ample save opportunities over the season, and while Alvarado likely won’t get every single opportunity, he should easily get the majority. He has no split disadvantages, and being able to get both lefties and righties out will make the decision easy for the skipper. To close those games out for the Rays, the ball needs to be in Alvarado’s left hand.

Closers are fickle every season, but if you’re looking for a guy routinely drafted outside of the top 10 closers that has top-five upside at the position, look no further than the Tampa Bay southpaw. Popular projection systems believe in the southpaw as much as I do, with ATC and Steamer projecting Alvarado for a K/9 over 10.00 and 28 and 32 saves respectively.

Alvarado has the makings of a top-tier fantasy closer and will easily exceed value in 2019.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
brooksbaseball.net