Besides being a minimal contributor in the stolen base department, Corey Seager is an all-around shortstop that competes with the best at his position in the league. The last time we saw Seager in full action, besides the 26 games pre-elbow injury last season, Seager hit .295 with 22 home runs and 77 RBI across 145 games. His numbers did take a dip from the year before, but to Seager’s credit, he did battle back issues for the majority of the season. Coming off Tommy John surgery, there are some concerns with Seager, especially earlier in the year as the team will likely manage his workload, but when he gets back to playing with no limitations, he should reclaim his spot among the league’s elite at shortstop. In fact, it’s very plausible that we have yet to see the best Seager has to offer.

In 2016 and 2017, Seager hit .308 and .295, with expected batting averages that were right on par with his actual batting average. His barrel rate consistently stays above nine percent, and albeit in a smaller sample size, it was encouraging that Seager’s average exit velocity of 91.6 miles per hour last season would have been a career best. His batting average of .267 was below his xBA of .296, diminished by his abnormally low .301 BABIP. Seager offers a reliable floor in the batting average department and if he can stay healthy, Seager is a .285 bat on the low end of the spectrum.

Again, we cannot invest too much into the 2018 numbers, as Seager played in just 26 games, but the early reduction in his strikeout rate was exceptional. His O-Swing percentage was at a career low and as you can see from the graph below, Seager was disciplined at the plate, staying with his approach and most importantly, inside the strike zone.

Not trying to burst anyone’s bubble here, but Seager won’t magically turn into a plus asset in the stolen base department. He is what he is there, meaning he’ll contribute a handful of steals but anything more than that is a bonus. However, the exciting part with Seager in 2019 and beyond is the potential to be a 30-homer bat. He’s topped out at 26 long balls in 157 games back in 2016, but his home park doesn’t do him any favors. Sure, over half of his home runs have come in home games, but his home confines aren’t the most hitter friendly by any means. There are some friendly stadiums in his division, sure, but take a look at Seager’s slugging percentages over the years, compared to his xSLG.

YEAR

SLG%

xSLG%

2016

.512

.517

2017

.479

.519

2018

.396

.498


Based on his batted profile, Seager should be posting a slugging percentage around .500, or that’s what it has been in recent years. Based on the players in 2018 with a slugging percentage within 20 points either way of .500, the lowest home run total was 17. Sure, slugging percentage isn’t the only factor that goes into home run production but it gives you a good baseline, and Seager’s past history indicates that he provides a 20 home run floor for his fantasy owners. That floor is even with being on the wrong side of luck when it comes to his slugging percentage! His Statcast metrics are above average and he uses all parts of the field.

Seager’s fantasy upside may not be as high as other players at his position, and that is solely because he doesn’t steal bases. It’s similar to the Alex Bregman argument at his position, in that “if only he stole a few more bases, he would move up a few spots.” However, Seager is an elite offensive weapon at his position and one of the best pure hitters in the game. His spray chart is a thing of beauty and at just 24 years young, Seager has yet to hit the prime of his power production.

All of the reports state that he is progressing well in his return from Tommy John surgery, minimizing the concern from potential fantasy owners. Seager is one of the best pure hitters in the game, and continuing to hit the ball hard and getting close to his expected batting average will be the key to his best statistical season yet.

Things have been quiet on the Seager front in spring, but there have been some encouraging notes, highlights, etc. In his return from Tommy John surgery, Seager will reclaim his spot as one of the elite players at his position, both in fantasy and reality.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com