2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Alex Bregman

The outspoken third baseman in Houston could be the face of baseball in a few years. Unlike his growing social media presence, Alex Bregman saw some decreased metrics in all of the right areas. While some fantasy owners will point to the fact that he stole less bases in 2018, the improvements he made in other categories more than offset the decrease in stolen bases. Besides, it was only seven less than the year before. If someone wanted to trade the 12 extra home runs, 17 more runs scored, 32 more RBI and two point batting average increase, all for those seven stolen bases, go right ahead. Bregman’s breakout 2018 campaign is better on so many more levels than just the statistical surface.

While his batting average jumped two points, it’s interesting that his BABIP was .289, considering that he hit more line drives and fly balls, all the while making more frequent hard contact. If he would have repeated his BABIP from the year prior (.311), you could have seen Bregman’s batting average end up north of .300. Besides this, Bregman’s most impressive jump in 2018 could have been his on-base percentage, which jumped 42 points from the year prior! Why? Take a look at his strikeout rate, but more importantly, his walk rate. His strikeout rate (12.1 percent) was lower than his walk rate (13.6 percent), and the latter jumped nearly five percentage points from the year prior! He did a great job staying in the zone, as his O-Swing% dropped nearly six percentage points from the year prior, and simply put, he didn’t swing as much. By swinging less, he made more contact than ever before, and by not expanding the zone, he forced the opposition to come to him. Look at his chase percentages from last season, and you’ll see his development against not just fastballs, but the secondary stuff as well.

That’s just a work of art right there. Even if he swings a little more in 2019, those marks shouldn’t increase too much. With his refined approach, there shouldn’t be much regression, if at all this season. If you want any early season reassurance with some statistics that don’t matter in the grand scheme of things, through his first nine spring training games, Bregman has six walks compared to just three strikeouts.

Further delving into the statistical excellence of Bregman’s 2018 season, his hard contact rate increased, while he made less soft contact, but there are some other metrics that catch the eye of most Statcast truthers. The noticeable jumps in exit velocity and barrel rate, along with the slight increase in launch angle, are incredibly enticing for the continual development in Bregman’s game.

Bregman saw an increase in his average exit velocity against all pitches, but 2018 marked the second straight yearly increase in that department. See for yourself below:

Bregman fits the profile of a first round fantasy selection in 2019, however, unless you are in a 15-team league, you can get the Houston third baseman in the second round. His current ADP on NFBC is 13.53, but if the kid stole more bases, he would be a higher selection. Furthermore, in most leagues, he has dual eligibility, providing fantasy owners with some versatility when setting his/her lineups. Bregman is still incredibly young and still has room for growth, which should be scary thought for the rest of the American League, as the soon-to-be 25-year-old has yet to really enter his prime. The improvements he made in 2018 were substantial and imperative to not only sustainable success at the big league level, but continuous improvement as well.

Bregman could take another step forward in 2019, and if the BABIP is closer to where it was in 2017, fantasy owners will enjoy an elite stat line. BABIP willing, Bregman could hit north of .300 with small improvements in his counting stats.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com