It took until 2018 for C.J. Cron to get a regular workload after being stuck behind Albert Pujols on the west coast. In his first season with the Rays, he hit 30 home runs, drove in 74 runs and hit .253 across 140 games. In his career year, he posted a 2.1 WAR, which was higher than his combined WAR over the prior four seasons (2.0) in Los Angeles. Cron will now be the primary first baseman up in Minnesota, with plenty of pop around him in the lineup as well. His average draft position (ADP) is pretty fair for a guy coming off a 30 home run season, but there could be some fool’s gold here with the 29-year-old first baseman.

Compared to prior seasons, there wasn’t any noticeable particular jump that could explain the increased home run production. Well, there is one, and it isn’t his hard contact rate. See for yourself below:

YEAR

HR

Hard Hit%

LD%

FB%

HR/FB

2015

16

27.4%

18.4%

37.1%

14.4%

2016

16

32.3%

19.6%

39.2%

12.1%

2017

16

35.8%

22.8%

44.7%

14.5%

2018

30

39.6%

21.1%

38.8%

21.4%


Yes, the yearly increased in his hard contact is encouraging, but in the past, even that wasn’t leading to increased home run production. A four percent hard contact increase, paired with a nearly six percent drop in fly ball rate, wouldn’t create to 14 extra home runs in 40 additional games in a particular campaign. The reason for the spike in home runs, and yes, the extra playing time helps, but that HR/FB ratio jumping to north of 21 percent was crucial. That mark allowed him to hit 30 home runs; however, if his HR/FB ratio would have been at 14 percent, which is right about in the middle of his seasons from 2015 to 2017, Cron only hits 20 home runs last season.

Furthermore, his Statcast numbers tell a similar story, highlighted by an exit velocity and hard hit percentage coming in the 40th and 46th percentile respectively.

YEAR

Barrel %

Exit Velocity

Launch Angle

2015

8.7%

88.2

12.3

2016

8.0%

89.3

12.7

2017

10.2%

89.2

18.0

2018

12.2%

88.0

15.2


Let’s start with the good from the above. The increased barrel rate is excellent, which can explain the increased rate of hard contact Cron experienced last year and in recent seasons. The launch angle was down from 2017, but it was above 2015 and 2016, so we can still call that an overall improvement. A launch angle right around 15 degrees, or higher is where Cron needs to reside. However, that exit velocity of his was the worst in the past four seasons, which doesn’t exactly coincide with a career high home run total. At his average draft position, he has every opportunity to reach and exceed value, but fantasy owners banking on 30 home runs again will be disappointed.

However, the new venue will help offset some of the metrics that point to a decline in Cron’s home run total. His spray chart from last season (below, via Baseball Savant) over the Twins stadium is actually quite impressive. (Note: The chart consists of line drives and fly balls only, so ground outs are excluded)

While the spray chart above is rather impressive and may point to a sustainable home run total near 30, take a look at the metrics and see that the peripheral numbers are indicative of a home run decline for Cron in 2019. Popular projection systems have him with a home run total in the low-to-mid-20s, which is a fair projection for the veteran first baseman.

Cron is still on the right side of 30 years old and should see regular playing time at first base for the Minnesota Twins. His ADP offers a great opportunity to reach value for fantasy owners, but the first base position is rather deep with big sluggers, so 25 home runs and 70 RBI won’t set you apart at this position.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com