2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Matt Carpenter

At various points of the 2018 season, St. Louis’ Matt Carpenter was the best and worst hitter in all of Major League Baseball. In his first 35 games last season, Carpenter slashed .140/.286/.272, but the next 79 games were a complete switch. In those 79 games, spanning from mid-May to mid-August, Carpenter slashed .332/.433/.721 with 30 home runs. The veteran infielder played in 145 or more games for the fifth time in the past six years, and his 36 home runs and .257 batting average restored some faith after an underwhelming 2017 campaign. Well, compared to years past that is. While Carpenter maintained his plate discipline traits that has made him an on-base machine over the recent years, the spike in power production and slugging percentage is directly correlated to Carpenter’s quality of contact.

Carpenter’s barrel rate increased exponentially, as did his hard hit percentage. See for yourself in the images below, via Baseball Savant.

Much like previous years, Carpenter did most of his damage against fastballs, as those pitches regularly count for the majority of his home runs, which is something that can likely be said for most players. His batting average remained low against non-fastballs for the third straight year, but 2018 was the first time that he recorded double-digit home runs on non-fastballs.

If Carpenter can replicate the success, at least in terms of power, against non-fastballs, we should see another 30+ homer campaign for the veteran infielder. In terms of his power production, the best years have been when he was able to barrel up breaking balls and send them flying over the fences.

The Cardinals vet slugged his way to a career-high hard hit percentage (49.0%) and his line drive rate of 26.7 percent was the third-best mark of his career. His fly ball percentage stayed high, and even dropped a bit from the year before, but that 19.1 HR/FB percentage was far and away the best of his career. Furthermore, it was well above his career average heading into the 2019 campaign. While that mark likely falls a bit in 2019, his fly ball rate should stay north of 45 percent, and his durability should give him yet another season with 620 or more plate appearances. Carpenter may not get to 36 home runs like he did last year, aided by that gargantuan streak, but he’s a pretty safe bet for 28-30 at least.

While his walk rate decreased a bit and his strikeout rate increased (23.3 percent last season), it didn’t get in the way of affecting his overall numbers. Sure, he swung and missed a few more times than normal, but trading that in for a few extra home runs is a welcomed transaction for Carpenter’s fantasy owners.

The early returns in spring training have been favorable, despite a less than ideal batting average. Even in games that don’t mean anything, especially to a veteran with solidified playing time like Carpenter, he’s hardly striking out and he’s walked a handful of times. He’s also left the yard a few times as well, displaying some of the above-average pop fantasy owners came to know and love in 2018.

Carpenter, who will likely hit leadoff for the Cardinals, will have one of the better supporting casts in recent memory in St. Louis, headlined by Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna . With his elite on-base prowess and reliable power production, Carpenter could find his way to quite a productive season. Per projections from THE BAT, courtesy of Derek Carty, Carpenter is in line for 29 home runs, 87 runs scored and 86 RBI to go along with a .257 average and .374 on-base percentage. There are 10 players, per THE BAT projections, that will reach each of those marks in 2019.

The players are as follows: Mike Trout , Bryce Harper , Juan Soto , Goldschmidt, Mookie Betts , Anthony Rizzo , Christian Yelich , Aaron Judge , J.D. Martin ez and Carpenter.

Carpenter is the only player that can be had outside of the top 40 picks, per NFBC ADP.

His durability and healthy combination of a reliable power floor and tangible upside makes him a nice pick in 2019.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com