If you didn’t know the name Max Muncy before the 2018 season, you probably were in the majority, for the most part, but everyone knows his name now! Despite hitting more than 20 home runs in just one minor league season (21 home runs in 93 games at A+), Muncy absolutely erupted for 35 long balls in 137 games for the Dodgers last season. His .263 average was pretty solid as well, leading to a solid 5.2 WAR for the season. At 28 years old, with a less than stellar track record of power production, sans the 2018 campaign, the question with Muncy heading into 2019 is whether or not the power is real, and sustainable, this season. For the answer to that question, you’ll need to keep reading! No spoilers!
In previous stints at the big league level, Muncy hit three home runs in 45 games back in 2015 with the Athletics, and followed that up with two round-trippers in 51 games the following season out in Oakland. The other tidbit from those two seasons is the fact that he hit .206 and .186 in those seasons. His .299 BABIP helped raise that batting average to .263 and a massive 16.4 percent walk rate vaulted his on-base percentage to .391. If Muncy logged enough at-bats last season to rank among qualified hitters, his 16.4 percent walk rate would have been the fourth-highest in all of baseball, trailing only Mike Trout , Bryce Harper and Joey Votto . Furthermore, he would have been one of just two players (Kyle Schwarber ) to post a walk rate above 15 percent and a strikeout rate above 27 percent. Despite having a rather high strikeout rate, his SwStr% (9.9%) and O-Swing% (21.5) are far from terrible! Given his track record, both of those numbers are sustainable for at least 2019.
When Muncy makes contact, it’s hard and loud. Among players with at least 450 plate appearances in 2018, Muncy’s 44.9 percent fly ball rate was the 16th-highest, and his hard contact rate of 47.4 percent was the ninth-best. His 29.4 percent HR/FB mark was the third-highest in all of baseball, sandwiched between prolific sluggers J.D. Martin ez and Aaron Judge . Muncy’s average exit velocity was in the 77th percentile last season and his average launch angle of 17.8 degrees will lend itself to more balls leaving the yard. In terms of barrel rate, Muncy found the sweet spot of his bat often, posting a Brls/PA percentage that was comparable to Mike Trout and Nelson Cruz , not to mention higher than Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich .
Focusing solely on the numbers, Statcast identifies players that are comparable to Muncy’s batted ball profile and the results are encouraging.
In short, the power is real, and he can be trusted for power production in 2019. The Dodgers should give him an everyday role and while he will carry eligibility at the corner infield positions, he may enter the year with eligibility at second base as well! If not, don’t fret, because after about two weeks of game play, he’ll have logged enough time at the keystone to earn eligibility.
Even if his batting average regresses closer to .245-.250, he can still be trusted for at least 25 home runs and 75 or more RBI with multi-position eligibility. That seems to be pretty darn valuable if you ask me, especially considering that he will gain the important second base eligibility, if he doesn’t have it already. Muncy will be a key piece in a Los Angeles lineup that should score some runs and with some favorable hitter parks in his division, Muncy is well worth his draft capital.
Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com