As the 2018 season neared, José Peraza ’s average draft position (ADP) skyrocketed, as he became a popular source of stolen bases at a reasonable price. While he didn’t surpass his 2017 numbers in that department, he turned out to a solid return on investment, as he posted a .288/,326/.416 slash line with 14 home runs, 85 runs scored, 58 RBI and 23 stolen bases across 157 games. He made solid strides at the plate and some trends later in the season spark some optimism that last season’s power could potentially be here to stay in 2019 and beyond. However, given that he only had 11 minor league career home runs and eight home runs with the Reds in the 215 games before the 2018 season, that power jump sticks out like a sore, yet delightful, thumb.

His 2018 season at the surface level showed that he offers a reliable floor in stolen bases, as he’s stolen at least 20 bases in three straight seasons, including 21 bags in just 72 games back in 2016. His success rate last year was the highest it’s been in his career, but he did attempt two less steals last season compared to 2017 despite appearing in 14 more games. If the success rate sustains, and Cincinnati lets him run, he could approach a stolen base total in the upper-20s.

His 14 home runs last season were welcomed by all of his fantasy owners and were certainly a surprise to say the least. Yes, he plays in one of the most favorable home parks in the league, but 14!? That’s a huge jump for the sub-200 pound shortstop. Additionally, his home runs were evenly split, as he hit seven at home and seven on the road. Like most things in life, there are two sides to every story, and there’s a case to be made for Peraza hitting 14 in 2019, as well as Peraza falling short this season.

Nine of Peraza’s 14 home runs came over the last 52 games of the season, which coincides with the fact that he hit more fly balls over the course of those final games than any prior month of the season. See for yourself, courtesy of Fangraphs.

MONTH (Games)

FB%

Hard Contact%

HR/FB

# of Home Runs

Mar/April (28)

32.3%

26.2%

6.7%

2

May (27)

36.7%

25.0%

0.0%

0

June (25)

37.2%

39.1%

6.3%

2

July (24)

35.3%

28.1%

3.3%

1

August (27)

47.1%

26.9%

8.3%

4

Sept/Oct (25)

38.2%

33.0%

14.7%

5


In the first half of the season, his GB/FB ratio was 1.11, but the mark fell to 0.80, which certainly bodes well for future power production. Additionally, his fly ball rate was nearly eight percentage points higher in the second half, further confirming the power spike late in the season.

All of that is fine and dandy, but the fact of the matter still remains that Peraza had just five home runs through the first 104 games of the season. That 104 game sample size, not to mention the 215 games over the prior two years, is a much larger sample size than the power binge he enjoyed over the last 52 games of the 2018 season. Despite being in a favorable home park and hitting more fly balls down the stretch, you still need to hit the ball hard. Per Statcast, this is where Peraza falls short.

Statcast Metric

Percentile

Exit Velocity

3rd

Hard Hit %

4th


For a frame of reference, Mallex Smith , Miguel Rojas and Leury García had higher average exit velocities than Peraza in 2018. With Peraza bound to turn 25 in April, there is hope that he can parlay the last 52 games of last season over the majority of a season. Peraza will never be a big time bopper in any lineup, but there is enough reason to believe he can at least crack double digits in 2019. He’s shown that he can hit double digit home runs with less than favorable exit velocity and hard contact marks, so any improvement there bodes well for his 2019 outlook.

With an improved supporting cast in Cincinnati and ideally a full season at or near the top of the Cincinnati lineup (.286 average hitting leadoff, .303 average hitting 2nd), Peraza has a chance to score 100 runs in this offense, especially with the additions of Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp alongside stalwarts Joey Votto , Scooter Gennett and Eugenio Suárez . Building off last year’s success, Peraza has a ceiling of 15 home runs, 100 runs scored and 30 stolen bases with a .290-.295 batting average in 2019. The stolen base total will hang in the 20-25 range at least this season, but some power and batting average regression could be in store.

A safe projection for Peraza this season is 10 home runs with 85 runs scored, 23 stolen bases and a .280 batting average.

Statistical Credits
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com