2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Paul DeJong

Paul DeJong was a fantasy goldmine in 2017, coming out of the woodworks to hit 25 home runs and drive in 65 runs with a .285/.325/.532 slash across 108 games. His marks in his stat line decreased across the board, and he dipped to 19 home runs last season, despite scoring 68 runs and driving in 68 in 115 games. He didn’t quite live up to the expectations set for him following his rookie campaign, but one cannot call his 2018 season a bust. A few more bounces his way and he’s darn near a repeat performance of his 2017 season. There is an extremely tasty buying opportunity on DeJong here in 2019, as his ADP is suppressed following what many considered a “down” year. He very well could hit third in the order, but if he hits fifth, that’s fine, cause Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna will give him plenty of opportunities to hit with runners on base.

Despite not exceeding the numbers he posted in 2017, DeJong made some great strides at the plate. He noticeably cut into his strikeout rate, while increasing his walk rate at the same time. Take a look at few of his improved marks from the year before.

Essentially, he chased less pitches, leading to a higher walk rate and lower strikeout rate, not to mention the fact that he made more contact. Furthermore, his hard hit rate jumped up to 38.7 percent last season, which was a nearly two and a half percentage point increase from 2017. Continuing the trend, his exit velocity jumped nearly three miles per hour, and he even increased his launch angle by nearly one degree. The barrel rate stayed similar, so why the hell did the batting average drop so much? Well, our good pal Mr. Batting Average on Batted Balls in Play, BABIP for short, struck, and DeJong was rather unlucky.

DeJong rode a .349 BABIP in 2017 to a .285 batting average, but a .288 BABIP last year drove that average down to the low .240s. In short, is he a .288 BABIP guy? No. Is he a .349 BABIP guy? No. He can certainly be somewhere in between that, and if DeJong registers a .310 BABIP in 2019, which is completely plausible, a.265-.270 batting average is on the table. For this to happen, an increased BABIP and batting average, DeJong will need to rekindle some of the success on fastballs and offspeed pitches in 2019. See for yourself:

DeJong didn’t punish fastballs as much as he did the year before, despite hitting those balls harder than the year prior. From the xBA, you can see that his batting average should have been higher. The stark changes were on breaking and offspeed pitches. DeJong made great strides against breaking pitches, increasing his batting average, exit velocity and launch angle. Conversely, DeJong regressed against offspeed pitches, to the tune of a decreased exit velocity and launch angle. DeJong’s numbers should even out against fastballs, and assuming he maintains the improvements on breaking pitches and improves against offspeed, DeJong is going to return a massive return on investment for his fantasy owners.

Popular projection systems surely like DeJong to bounce back in a big way, to the tune of a home run total in the mid-20s with a batting average in the mid-.250s. The longer DeJong hits in the heart of the St. Louis order, his RBI upside could usurp the projected totals in the upper seventies and low eighties. He surely won’t be a sub-.300 BABIP guy in 2019, so that improvement will help the batting average, while his improved plate discipline should push his OBP north of the .325 mark he posted back in 2017 with an inflated BABIP.

DeJong is a popular sleeper choice at his position, given his potential upside for close to 30 home runs at a suppressed ADP.

Statistical Credits
Fangraphs.com
BrooksBaseball.net
thebaseballcube.com
baseballsavant.mlb