2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Luis Severino

Luis Severino had a great 2018 season, going 19-8 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, en route to a ninth-place finish in the American League Cy Young voting. His peripheral statistics weren’t too far off from the numbers he posted in 2017, but the lackluster second half numbers for the New York ace have stuck in everyone’s craw since last October. The numbers are more alarming than you may think, but a bit surprising as well, considering his second half of 2017 was far superior to the first few months of that campaign.

Yikes. Those are some astounding numbers. All of the metrics that you didn’t want to jump, didn’t just jump, but more so skyrocketed. Opponents were hitting a few less fly balls, and turning them into line drives. Furthermore, his ground ball percentage dropped over seven percent in the second half of the season, which was a big factor in that line drive rate increasing to nearly 32 percent.

Severino’s two worst months of the season were easily July and August, so that explains the split of the second half in the table above. Being a two-pitch starter in the majors is a tall task, which is why Severino needs to do more than just sprinkle in that changeup. Sure, the usage between his excellent first half and porous July and August wasn’t stark by any means, but it was just enough. Furthermore,  it wasn’t just the changeup usage, but his effectiveness with his primary pitches faltered in the dog days of summer. His changeup rate should never fall below 12 percent, because he needs to make the opposition deal with something other than a fastball and hard slider.

Relievers with two pitches can get by, but it’s much harder for starters. Starters with a two-pitch arsenal might have tougher times getting deeper into games, and while Severino has shown the propensity to pitch deep into games, it is worth noting that after averaging over six innings per start in 2017, that mark fell to 5.9 innings last season. Being the team’s ace, he may have a longer leash than other guys in the rotation, sans James Paxton , but with the Yankees continuing to bolster the pen, perhaps Severino has a quicker hook in 2019. His struggles are well documented when going through the order.

Again, let me reiterate, folks. As the team’s ace, he will have a slightly longer leash, but with Aaron Boone having the league’s deepest bullpen at his disposal, is there a need to push Severino into the sixth or seventh inning on an every start basis? Severino will get chances to get deeper into the ball games, and despite having projected around 200 innings this season, I’m not convinced the 25-year-old right-hander will get there in 2019. There’s no doubting that Severino can be a fantasy ace in 2019, and many will draft him as such, but expecting 200 innings because he’s thrown 190 or more each of the past two seasons seems dangerous. Peaking right around 195 innings seems just about right for Severino this season.

Despite the second half struggles in 2018, Severino has been one of the game’s best pitchers for the better part of two seasons. He’s established a 10+ K/9 and a strikeout rate around 30 percent, all while harnessing his command and keeping his walk rate around six percent. Severino has yet to put a full season together with an ace-like stat line, but it could happen as soon as 2019. He is effective on a per-inning basis, and doesn’t necessarily need large volume to make fantasy stardom. Again, I don’t see him throwing 200 innings in 2019, but he can be a top seven arm in fantasy baseball this season over 190-195 electrifying innings. Severino has a better chance of winning 20 games than throwing 200 innings in 2019.

With a loaded offense supporting him, Severino could win 20 games and post a career-high K/9 this year.

Statistical Credits
Fangraphs.com
BrooksBaseball.net
thebaseballcube.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com