Since entering the league with Milwaukee back in 2013, Khris Davis has watched his home run total increase every season, all the way to an astounding 48 round-trippers in 2018. His ISO has increased every year since 2014 and he was two runs short of joining the 100 run/100 RBI club for the first time in his career last season. Despite knowing all about his exceptional power, the craziest, wildest stat for Davis is the fact he has hit exactly .247 in each of the past four seasons. Simply put, Davis has been incredibly consistent over the past three seasons, to the tune of at least 150 games played, 42 home runs, 102 RBI and a .247 batting average every year since 2016.

Like many of the premier power hitters in the league, strikeouts can be a problem for Davis, as his strikeout rate has exceeded 27-percent in three of the last four seasons, with last year’s mark of 26.8 percent being the lowest mark since 2014 in Milwaukee. While the strikeout percentage decreased last year from prior seasons, the whiff rate remains high and he remains uber-aggressive on breaking pitches. However, he managed to hit nine long balls off sliders this past year, which tied his total from 2016 and 2017. Davis will always crush fastballs, but being able to punish off-speed pitches, especially mistakes, will be key to sustaining that 40-plus home run floor he’s created for himself.

His on-base percentage dipped a bit last season, aided by a decrease in his walk rate. Is more regression in store for 2019? Not quite. His walk rate last season is more comparable to his career mark, meaning that a nine percent walk rate is more repeatable in 2019 than his 11.2 percent walk rate back in 2017. He’s a career .320 on-base percentage guy, and at this point, that’s just what he is, considering that we can nearly bank on a repeat .247 batting average for the fifth straight season.

Davis is one of two players (Giancarlo Stanton ) to have 120 or more home runs over the past three seasons, but the Oakland star is the only hitter to have 40 or more home runs in each year since 2016. Furthermore, he’s appeared in 150 or more games in each of those seasons. This sort of consistency is rather rare for power hitters, and because he’s been designated hitter more than 90-percent of the time, his risk of injury is slightly mitigated as he doesn’t have to worry about playing the field every day.

His draft cost is a bit higher than recent seasons, which is to be expected, considering the fact that he hit 40 or more homers yet again, and last year’s mark of 48 four-baggers led all of Major League Baseball. Given that it’s going to take a third-round pick in a 15-team format, the question to ask is whether there is any additional room for growth? Can he get to that 50-home run mark? Is drafting Davis in the third or fourth round chasing last year’s production? Cases can be made either way.

Can Davis get to 50 home runs? Maybe. While his hard-hit percentage jumped from prior years and he traded in ground balls for a five-percent increase in fly balls last season. However, more fly balls led to a reduced line drive rate, and in his spacious home park, that could cut down a few home runs for Davis. His HR/FB rate decreased to 24.1 percent, which was by far his lowest mark since joining Oakland in 2016. More fly balls did lead to more home runs in 2018, but that mark could jump again if he sustains his fly ball rate from last season and the HR/FB ratio jumps closer to the 26-27 percent mark it was in 2016 and 2017.

Can Davis get to 50 home runs? Maybe not. If his fly ball and hard-hit rates regress to his career averages, getting closer to 50 seems like a tall task. An increased strikeout rate of even just a few percentage points could hold him back as well. Even if he were to regress, he’ll still hit 40 home runs, but his total would be closer to 40 than 50.

Steamer projects Davis to hit .240 with 40 home runs, 89 runs scored and 106 RBI in 150 games this season. That definitely returns the third round or fourth round investment on him, and would be an incredible fourth straight season with 40 or more home runs as a member of the Oakland Athletics. Be wary of your league settings, however, because if he still has outfield eligibility, he is far more valuable compared to leagues where he can only be slotted as a utility player. An early selection of a sole utility player hamstrings your lineup a bit, so it’s imperative to check your league settings and roster restrictions, rules, etc.

Davis is the only player in baseball with 150+ games played, 40+ home runs and 100+ RBI in each of the past three seasons, and he doesn’t even cost a first or second round pick! Davis’ power production is remarkable, but his consistency over the past three seasons should be equally as impressive to fantasy owners.

Statistical Credits
Fangraphs.com
BrooksBaseball.net
thebaseballcube.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com