2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Tommy Pham

Undergoing vision-saving history changed the course of Tommy Pham ’s playing career, but in the bigger picture, his life. He routinely dealt with eye problems and an absurd strikeout 38.8-percent strikeout rate might have been the icing on the cake to take the chance of going under the knife. Of course, other factors were involved in the decision. His career has changed for the better, and he’s been able to be a member of the 20/15 club in each of the past two seasons without playing in more than 137 games in either campaign. His numbers dipped off a bit last season, but he still managed to hit 21 homers, swipe 15 bags and score 102 runs as a member of the Cardinals and Rays. However, buyer beware, as Pham could slightly regress again in 2019, despite a solid floor, and at his current price point, there are far more attractive options.

While the outfielder has been able to reach double-digit home runs and stolen bases the past two seasons, injuries have cut into potential production, limiting him to fewer than 140 games in each season he’s been in the majors. His 137 games last year were the most in his career, but he still found a way to the disabled list. In fact, Pham has served a DL stint in three of the past four years. Pham is 31-years old and his stolen base totals and attempts decreased rather substantially since last year. Furthermore, when he joined Tampa Bay, he ran less, despite the fact that Tampa Bay led the league in attempts per game in 2018.

In 2017, Pham attempted a stolen base every four games. In 98 games with the Cardinals in 2018, that mark actually fell to one attempt every 6.1 games, but after the trade to Tampa Bay, that metric fell yet again to every 6.5 games. Additionally, his success rate fell in 2018, so when you put it altogether, you have a guy on the wrong side of 30, running less often and has been less efficient when he does decide to run. Perhaps they let him run more in 2019, but maybe the 15 stolen bases from last year is his ceiling moving forward.

Lastly, Pham’s hard-hit rate jumped 13-percent last season, placing him in the top five among all qualified hitters in baseball last season. Replicating a hard-hit rate of nearly 50-percent is going to be a tall task, considering that he made hard contact just 35-percent the year before. Some regression here isn’t just a concern, as it should certainly be expected.

Earlier, I mentioned that while Pham has provided a reliable floor over the last two years, but at his price point, there are far better options. Lorenzo Cain is being drafted right around Pham, and he has more upside, as demonstrated last season with the Brewers. Compare the two players over the last two seasons below, and no, one of them is not Cain.

Player A is Pham, and Player B is Seattle’s Mitch Haniger . At the time of writing, Haniger is going just over 20 picks later, and when comparing the two players’ 162 game averages, paying up for Pham a whole round earlier than Haniger carries some risk, especially when you consider that the former is running less and the latter is on the right side of 30 and in the theoretical prime of his career.

Depending on your team’s make up in the first three rounds of the draft will force your hand into which direction you head, but if you don’t need speed, waiting one round for someone like Haniger seems more lucrative than selecting Pham. Based on these averages, is 11 extra stolen bases over a five-month period more valuable than waiting one round and getting four more home runs and 20 more RBI? That’s a decision you will have to make, based on your team construction after your first few selections.

Not discounting what Pham has done over the past two seasons, but with more lucrative options around him, and the likelihood of regression in 2019, Pham is worrisome. Despite offering a floor of double-digit home runs and stolen bases, Pham carries a lot of risk for one of your first five or six selections.

Statistical Credits
Fangraphs.com
BrooksBaseball.net
thebaseballcube.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com