2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Aaron Judge

An unfortunate injury cut Aaron Judge ’s 2018 campaign short, but there was still plenty of things to take away from last season. The strikeout rate is immense, and unless something drastic changes, he’ll likely contend for the league lead in strikeouts on a yearly basis. Additionally, despite playing in 43 less games last season compared to the year prior, Judge was very consistent, as his strikeout percentage was just two tenths of a percentage point lower than the previous year. At that current pace, his strikeout rate will drop under 30 percent in 2021! Regardless, Judge remains an excellent fantasy asset in 2019 and he’s proven over two seasons now that he can hit above .275 while striking out nearly one-third of the time.

His counting stats, notably the home runs and RBI, would have been fewer than his breakout 2017 season, but he still would have returned solid value for his fantasy owners. The walk rate took a little bit of a dip last season, almost three and a half percent to be exact, and while that may not show in a sharp decrease in terms of batting average, his on-base percentage declined 30 percentage points. However, there was one particular mark that jumped off the page with Judge between 2017 and 2018.

Judge’s batted ball profile shifted a bit, not in terms of contact as much – he actually made more hard contact last year than 2017 – but in terms of ground balls and fly balls. Compared to 2017, Judge was a real worm killer in 2018. His 111 ground balls hit in 2018 were just seven fewer than his entire 2017 total, and last year’s mark came in 43 fewer games!

There’s a lot less black and lot more green on the right figure (2018), and while there were less games played, the fly ball layout wasn’t particularly intriguing. However, the graph does showcase something rather interesting and it’s occurred over each of the past two seasons. The ground balls are on the left-hand side of the field, as are the majority of the line drives, and his fly balls are directed towards center and right field. Does it mean anything in fantasy baseball? Not particularly, but it’s an interesting tidbit that you can use to impress those around you.

If you are a big proponent of Statcast, particularly exit velocity and hard hit rates, Judge excels. His percentage of balls hit 95 miles per hour or harder was the highest in the league last year and similar to his mark in 2017. Additionally, Judge’s average exit velocity in 2018 was 94.7 miles per hour, which was the best in baseball, marking the second consecutive year that Judge has topped this category. In short, Judge hits the ball hard and his home park lends itself to ample home runs. Judge likely would have exceeded 40 last year if it weren’t for that unfortunate injury.

Worried about a lessened RBI total in 2019? Don’t be. The Yankees have bolstered the bottom third of the lineup with guys that can get on base, notably middle infielders Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu . With Judge likely hitting second in the lineup again, the strengthened bottom half should alleviate concerns about a dampened RBI total. Plus, with his power potential, he should be right around 100 RBI, if not well above it. The Yankees boast a deep lineup and the concern with Judge’s counting statistics should be minimal.

Drafting Judge in the second round of your draft gives your team big power upside, while providing a relatively high floor in batting average. Sure, he doesn’t give you much speed, but he’ll end the year with a stolen base total in the 7-10 range. However, very few guys in the league offer 50+ home run upside, and getting him outside of the first round is an absolute steal.

Judge offers elite power potential with a steady batting average at a bargain of a price.

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Statistical Credits

Fangraphs.com, BrooksBaseball.net, thebaseballcube.com, baseballsavant.mlb.com