After posting numerous 20/20 seasons in the minor leagues, the power and speed combo hasn’t quite played for George Springer and his fantasy owners since joining the Astros back in 2014. That year, he posted a career-high with 16 stolen bases, but over the past three years, he has just 20 stolen bases, not to mention being caught a whopping 21 times in that span. Hence the reason he’s probably not running as much, because he hasn’t been successful when the team is giving him the green light. Additionally, running opportunities should be limited when guys like José Altuve and Carlos Correa are hitting behind him.
For hitting atop the Houston order, Springer offers plus power, hitting 22 or more in each of the past three seasons, including 29 in 2016 and a career high 34 in 2017. Again, the success on the base paths isn’t quite there, but he’s not a complete no-show in that department either. Despite getting caught stealing at a rather high clip over the past few seasons, he’s registering double-digit attempts, but there’s no indication that he’ll be more successful in 2019. Take your 5-10 stolen bases and be happy with Springer.
Despite being a guy with 85 home runs over the past three seasons, his hard hit rate during that time isn’t quite what you expect. In fact, since the start of the 2016 season, Springer’s hard hit rate of 34.6 percent is 114th best in all of baseball, comparable to Alex Gordon , Brandon Crawford and Max Kepler . He’s been fairly consistent with a hard hit rate around 33 percent for most of his career, but the drop in home runs last year was due to sharp decrease in his HR/FB ratio. His 2018 mark of 15 percent was well below his career 20.2 percent mark, and over seven points below his 22.8 percent mark in 2017. Even a small increase of two or three percent to his HR/FB ratio should translate to a floor of about 26 home runs for Springer in 2019 and pairing that with about 115 runs scored and 80 RBI is a really good floor.
In 2018, we saw Springer’s ISO and slugging percentage drop to career lows at .169 and .434 respectively. What is the deal with that? First and foremost, don’t worry, his marks in 2019 won’t be that low this season. However, we might be able to explain the sharp decreases in those numbers, nearly 35 points below his career averages. The strikeout rate jumped nearly two percentage points from the following year, the HR/FB rate plummeted, which we talked about earlier, and if you’re not into Statcast, then you can ignore these two bullet points. Springer’s barrel rate dropped from the year before, and the average exit velocity off his bat was over two and a half miles per hour slower than his career mark.
Steamer projects a slight bounce back campaign for the center fielder, slashing .263/.354/.460 with 25 home runs, 91 runs scored and eight stolen bases. Hitting atop the team’s lineup may cut down on some of his RBI opportunities with the bottom of the lineup being weaker than previous seasons, but if Springer can post an on-base percentage of .360-.370, he could lead the league in runs scored this season, especially with the likes of Alex Bregman , Altuve, Correa and Michael Brantley behind him in the order.
2018 was a bit underwhelming for the All-Star outfielder, but at his current ADP, he’s a late fourth round pick in a 15-team format. With arguably the best value in the past few years on the powerful outfielder, he is a bargain selection at his price point. He’s played 140 or more games in three straight seasons and while there might be some flashier picks around him, don’t sleep on Springer’s upside. He offers a steady floor with sizable upside that shouldn’t be ignored in fantasy drafts.
Statistical Credits
Fangraphs.com, BrooksBaseball.net, thebaseballcube.com, baseballsavant.mlb.com