2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Aaron Nola

It was a true breakout campaign in 2018 for Philadelphia’s ace Aaron Nola , as he went 17-6 with a 2.37 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and a 9.49 K/9 across 212.1 innings. In 2017, Nola was solid as well, but he took it to a higher level in 2018, which easily became his best season as a professional. Turning just 26 years old in June, Nola is reaching his prime and while there may be some minor concerns for his outlook in 2018, he could continue to build upon last year’s success.

Nola had a clean bill of health in 2018, serving as the first time since the 2015 season that he didn’t spend time on the disabled list. Another year of good health for Nola is critical to the continuation of the success he sustained in 2018. In recent years of the Draft Guide, we have talked about workload concerns for pitchers, and how large jumps can affect them the following season.

Pitchers who make large jumps in innings from the previous season could be at risk for an injury the following season. Nola, who also dealt with an elbow injury a few years ago, jumped 33 innings in 2018 from his 2017 total. He did throw 180+ innings back in 2015, so he does have some sort of history of logging heavy innings, but since that season, he’s seen his innings totals jump from 111, to 178.1, to a career-high 212.1 innings last season. That shouldn’t detract you from selecting Nola, but it is worth noting nonetheless.

Following the 2017 season, Nola altered his pitch usage rather drastically. He was throwing his fastball, sinker, and curveball each nearly 25-percent, and then mixing in a changeup about 15-percent of the time. Take a look for yourself.

However, 2018 presented a bit of a usage change for Nola, which is a likely reason for his breakout campaign last year.

Of course, the opposition posting worse batting averages against his pitches helped drive down his peripheral numbers, but the small alterations to his arsenal had to help as well. He drastically cut back the usage of his sinker; in turn throwing more fastballs and changeups. The results were certainly positive, as opponents struggled with his sinker in 2018, and his fastball proved to be one of the more effective heaters in the game.

Also, the opposition is going to struggle with Nola’s curveball, as it is one of the most jaw-dropping pitches in baseball. It’s his strikeout pitch and with two strikes against the opposition, opponents struck out 107 times and hit just .121 against that pitch.

Another encouraging sign for Nola is the fact that he’s generating a groundball nearly 50-percent of the time, and there is room for growth in that department. His sinking fastball is a worm killer and even though he’s cut back on usage of that pitch, he’s got it in his back pocket to use at his disposal. Additionally, he did a great job in 2018 improving the hard-hit rate against him. In 2017, the opposition generated hard contact nearly 30-percent of the time, but last season, that mark fell to 25.1-percent. Great improvement for the 25-year-old righty.

The move of Rhys Hoskins from the outfield to first base, along with the additions of Andrew McCutchen and Jean Segura should greatly improve a defensive unit that committed the second-most errors in all of baseball last season, and posted the second-lowest fielding percentage in the league. Any improvement here will benefit Nola, at least a little bit. Sure, not enough to move the needle by any means, but it’s a reason for future optimism.

As for 2019 with Nola, his future is bright and looks poised to cement his status as one of the top starters in reality and fantasy. Steamer projects Nola at a 12-10 record with a 3.57 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 194 innings. However, the fantasy community expects greater things from Nola in 2019, as he’s currently the fourth starting pitcher off the board, per NFBC ADP. In fact, in a 12-team format, Nola is being drafted at the back-end of the second round.

Nola has room for growth on the mound and his repertoire is one of the nastiest in the game. A dynamic fastball and a devastating curveball should give batters fits again in 2019. Nola may not have the floor of a Max Scherzer , Chris Sale or Corey Kluber , but I’ll be damned if he doesn’t have that kind of upside.

Statistical Credits
Fangraphs.com
BrooksBaseball.net